US-CHINA: FM Calls For More Comms & Consultation In Meeting w/US Business Group

•  RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 6255.00 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 6239.00 @ 14:54 BST Jun 30  
• SUP 1: 6069.53/5952.84 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has started this week on a firm note. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5952.84.

SX5E (19/06/26) 6000/6500cs 1x2, bought for -9.4 (receive) in 5k (5k x 20k).

Gilt futures recover from a brief and shallow showing through Friday’s low.

• No overt drivers of the blip lower and subsequent recovery with headline flow remaining light.
• Initial support at the 20-day EMA (92.67) remains untested, with session lows of 92.83 registered before a bounce back above 93.00.
• Yields 1.5-2.5bp lower on the day, ~3bp off session highs.
• Both 2s10s and 5s30s a touch steeper on the day, set to register fresh June closing highs.
• Front end pricing continues to stick to tight ranges.
• SONIA futures flat to +3.5.
• BoE-dated OIS showing 54bp of cuts through year-end, with 80% odds of the next 25bp step coming in August and such a move fully discounted through September.
• Doves have not been able to force pricing through 55bp of cuts through December in recent sessions.
• UK-centric discussions continue to focus on fiscal fragility and PM Starmer’s political difficulties, little impact from today’s data.
• U.S. ISM manufacturing data headlines the macro docket during Tuesday’s session, while Tuesday’s UK calendar is dominated by final manufacturing PMI and comments from BoE Governor Bailey.