EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Flutter Entertainment (FLTR): UK Tax Response
- Flutter confirmed expected impact from UK tax changes, pre/post mitigation.
- 2026: $320m / $235m.
- 2027: $540m / $339m.
- This aligns with our $500m unmitigated expectation on the announcement yesterday https://mni.marketnews.com/4oiAynm.
- Mitigation is expected mainly through market share gains, benefiting from its scale position. It sees that as greater than primary mitigation of reduced operational and marketing spend, which nonetheless is expected to offset 37% of the impact for 2027. That implies 80+% mitigation in total.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 0.6574 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6564 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6551 @ 08:06 GMT Oct 28
- SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
Recent gains in AUDUSD reinforces a bull theme. Attention remains on the Oct 14 reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. The pair has traded through the 50-day EMA - a bullish development. This opens 0.6574 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. A break of this level would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6953.25 2.000 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swinge
- RES 1: 6912.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6904.50 @ 07:50 GMT Oct 28
- SUP 1: 6812.25/6748.48 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6655.59 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday, as it started the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 6900.00 handle has been cleared, opening 6953.25 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Q3 Bank Lending Survey Due Today, But ECB Oct Expectations Well Formed
Today’s regional data calendar is headlined by the ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey. It is closely watched by Governing Council members to assess the transmission of monetary policy, and by extension the likely credit impulse over the next few quarters. Recent data on lending/credit have been slightly dovish on net, so it will be interesting to see if the BLS confirms these signals. Yesterday’s September money and credit data pointed a fading credit impulse, while the SAFE survey (which asks questions to private companies, rather than banks) indicated a slight tightening of financing conditions.
- The BLS is not expected to alter expectations ahead of the ECB’s decision on Thursday, with the deposit rate seen steady at 2.00% with unchanged guidance. However, it adds to the stock of data available ahead of the December decision (which includes an updated set of macroeconomic projections).
- OIS markets price just ~2bps of easing through year-end, with a 50% implied probability of another cut through September 2026. This week’s heavy data calendar leaves scope for terminal rate repricing in either direction, but rhetoric from policymakers/sources suggest risks are still tilted in a dovish direction for now.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues. After reaching a multi-month high of 98.160 on October 17, ERZ6 has fallen back to 98.045.
- The ECB’s September consumer expectations survey will also be released this morning. Meanwhile, the volatile Irish Q3 flash GDP figure could have implications for the Eurozone-wide release on Thursday.
