EM LATAM CREDIT: Fitch Revises Local FX Corporate "Nat'l Scale" Ratings

•  Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 12/15 $1B *Willis North America $700M +5Y +85, $300M +10Y +98
• 12/15 $550M Perimeter Holdings 8NC3 6.25%a

European curves flattened Monday, with the ECB and BOE decisions looming later in a busy week.

• Gilt and Bund futures traded in ranges seen late last week, as part of a broader global move ahead of significant central bank and data events (US and UK labour market and inflation data).
• After a morning rise, core FI had been set to post stronger gains on the day but pulled back sharply in the last couple of hours ahead of the cash close. There wasn't a clear headline/macro catalyst for either move, overall the moves had a positive correlation with risk assets (a late pullback in stocks was associated with weaker bonds).
• In other developments, the French Senate passed the 2026 budget as expected, while the EU unveiled its H1 2026 funding plan, which includes E90B of bonds.
• The UK curve twist flattened with outperformance at the long end vs Germany, whose curve bull flattened. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened modestly.
• Tuesday's data docket is heavy, with UK labour market data followed by flash December PMIs. MNI's preview of this week's key UK data is here - The labour market and CPI data could pose potential roadblocks but we remain of the view that if data is broadly in line with the BOE's expectation, a cut is likely coming. Elsewhere Tuesday, attention will be on the US employment report for October and November.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 2.15%, 5-Yr is up 0.1bps at 2.469%, 10-Yr is down 0.4bps at 2.853%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 3.472%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.7bps at 3.754%, 5-Yr is down 0.8bps at 3.947%, 10-Yr is down 2.1bps at 4.496%, and 30-Yr is down 2.9bps at 5.239%.
• Italian BTP spread down 1.1bps at 68bps / French OAT down 1.5bps at 70.9bps  

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Nov 20   
• RES 3: 0.8818 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8792 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 0.8787 @ 16:32 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 0.8721 Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

Recent gains in EURGBP signal a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase between Nov 14 - Dec 9. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.