TURKEY: Fitch, Moody’s May Both Update Assessments on Turkey’s Credit Rating
- Moody’s and Fitch are both set to provide their assessments on Turkey after market close today, but our EM Credit team are not expecting any changes to credit ratings at this juncture.
- The CBRT has reduced the maximum interest on some monthly credit card debt. For credit card debt between TRY25,000 and TRY150,000, the maximum interest is lowered to 4% from 4.25%, and for over TRY150,000 is reduced to 4.5% from 4.75%.
- Turkey's manufacturing confidence fell to 100.2 in July from 100.3 in June, according to the Central Bank of Turkey. Adjusted manufacturing confidence rose to 98.9 from 98.4 while capacity utilization fell to 74.2% from 74.6% - marking the lowest for that series since March 2023.
- Local press otherwise continues to digest the implications of yesterday's CBRT meeting, at which the one-week repo rate was cut by 300bps to 43%. Our full review, with a summary of sell-side views, will be published later today.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
- RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
- RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18
- PRICE: $35.973 @ 08:14 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: $35.581 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $34.315/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
A bull wave in Silver is in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.581, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would open $34.315, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3821 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3734 @ 08:08 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 1.3635 Low Jun 18
- SUP 2: 1.3540/3534 Low Jun 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
A primary downtrend in USDCAD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3713, has been breached. A continuation higher would signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3821. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6493 @ 08:03 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 0.6454/6373 Low Jun 24 / 23
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6309 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jun 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. The sharp reversal higher from Monday’s low reinforces a bull theme and signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. The climb Monday also highlights a bullish price pattern - a hammer candle formation. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger, at 0.6552, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
