EU TECHNOLOGY: Fiserv Q125 Results

CIBC note that “the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index will experience a modest extension of +0.033yrs on Apr 1, mainly from Canada Apr 1/26 (C$10.19bln) and Quebec Apr 1/26 (C$2.49bln) bonds rolling out of the index. The Short segment will also extend by +0.024yrs for the same reason. Meanwhile, modified durations of the Mid and Long segments will remain basically unchanged that day. Payment of approximately C$446mln in Apr 1 coupons will have minimal contribution to the extension.”

• GBP500.0mln had been on offer.
• This leaves GBP30.479bln of the gilt in issue.

Gov Kugler (permanent FOMC voter)'s overall view on rates is unsurprisingly very similar to pre-FOMC and the Committee's overall signalling of a wait-and-see stance on rate moves, per a speech Tuesday (text here) - consistent with a Fed that is not looking to ease until later in the year.

• "Given the economy’s overall solid position and the heightened level of uncertainty, I supported the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision last week to maintain the policy rate at its current level...I see current policy as continuing to be restrictive and I judge that FOMC policy is well positioned. The committee can react to new developments by holding at the current rate for some time as we closely monitor incoming data and the cumulative effects of new policies."
• On March 7 she said "it could be appropriate to continue holding the policy rate at its current level for some time", so this is arguably slightly more foreceful language on holding rates for an extended period.
• It is noticeable as the next round of tariff announcements loom in April that - like Powell last week - she calls out the apparent end of goods price disinflation as an "unhelpful" development as this category that "has often kept a lid on total inflation and also affects inflation expectations... I am paying close attention to the acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations, especially given the recent bout of inflation in the past two years".
• As for the latter, another interesting recent theme is that Fed officials are concerned public inflation expectations are arguably more sensitive to the upside now that consumers have had a taste of prolonged elevated inflation. Atlanta's Bostic said yesterday: “We’ve just gone through a period of elevated inflation so it’s very much on the consumer’s mind... I fear that they might be more sensitive to higher prices today than they have been in the past, but they might not, and we’ll just have to see how it plays out.”