US: First White House Press Conference Since July 7 Underway Shortly

Jul-17 17:01

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is shortly due to deliver her first White House press conference since July 7. LIVESTREAM

  • The presser comes after reports that President Donald Trump is planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell precipitated significant moves in US assets yesterday, which pared back when Trump denied the reports.
  • Trump told reporters at the White House yesterday that he would send tariff letters to more than 150 countries, notifying them of a 10%-15% tariff rate. “We’ll have well over 150 countries that we’re just going to send a notice of payment out, and the notice of payment is going to say what the tariff”, Trump said, adding that the recipients were “not big countries, and they don’t do that much business.”
  • Trump is also facing the most pronounced rift with his base since entering presidential politics. In a lengthy message on Truth Social yesterday, Trump scolded “past supporters” for buying into a Democrat “hoax” regarding financier Jeffrey Epstein.
  • The Epstein schism is part of a broader disconnect with MAGA voters, including a recent warming to Ukraine, prioritisation of trade with China, concerns over the Big Beautiful Bill, and foreign military action abroad.
  • The Telegraph reports that Trump has overseen “nearly as many air strikes in the first five months of his second term as Joe Biden launched in his entire presidency,” threatening to undermine Trump’s goal of ending American adventurism abroad.

Historical bullets

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

Jun-17 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
  • RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
  • PRICE: 1.1549 @ 15:17 BST Jun 17
  • SUP 1: 1.1419 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.1278/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
  • SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
  • SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high, has been breached. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1419, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1278. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.      

OPTIONS: Notable Bobl Put, Euribor Call Ladder Buying

Jun-17 16:52

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • OEQ5 117p, bought for 18.5 in ~11.2k
  • RXN5 130/129.50ps, sold at 9.5 in 2k
  • ERU5 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 1 in 10k
  • ERZ5 98.25/98.50/98.625c ladder, bought for 3.75 in 3.5k
  • ERZ5 98.25/98.375/98.50c ladder, bought for half in 2k
  • ERZ5 98.25/98.50cs vs 98.00p, bought the cs for 2.25 in 5k
  • 2RU5 97.93/97.75ps 1x2, bought for 0.75 in 2.5k
  • SFIZ5 96.50/96.70cs, bought for 4 in 5.3k
  • SFIH6 95.70/95.40ps 1x2, sold the 1 at -0.25 in 4k

FED: US TSY 4Y-10M TIPS AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $53 MLN FROM $23.000 BLN TOTAL

Jun-17 16:45
  • US TSY 4Y-10M TIPS AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $53 MLN FROM $23.000 BLN TOTAL