NATGAS: FIRST TAKE: Trump-Zelensky meeting fallout BULLISH for TTF, JKM

FIRST TAKE: Trump-Zelensky meeting fallout BULLISH for TTF, JKM as Russian gas return to Europe is less likely

Laurent Ruseckas

*The disastrous visit of Zelensky to the White House reduces dramatically the chances of Ukraine and Europe having a role in peace negotiations
*A deal negotiated bilaterally between Russia and the US and may still bring about a ceasefire if Ukraine feels it has no choice but to accept
*But such a deal would provide an extremely poor political environment for the return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Feb. 28 visit to the White House did not go well, featuring what the press has described as a “shouting match” in front of the cameras among Zelensky, President Trump, and Vice President Vance.

The purpose of Zelensky’s visit, as well as the visits earlier in the week of French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer, was to pull the Trump administration away from a bilateral process with Russia and Russia and into a wider process with Ukraine and Europe also at the table.

The likelihood of a wider negotiating process is now much lower; perhaps zero.

Ukraine may reject the terms that emerge from US-Russian negotiations. But if Ukraine feels it has no choice but to accept, most European countries would see the resulting ceasefire as unbalanced and unsustainable. Emboldened Russia, its military no longer bogged down in Ukraine, would loom as a serious security threat to a Europe that could no longer rely on American support.

The chances of a deal to restart imports of Russian pipeline gas to Europe under such circumstances would be vanishingly small.

Read on PlattsConnect: {https://tinyurl.com/2esyka5f}