COMMODITIES: First Short-Term Bull Trigger for Gold at $4245.23
Recent weakness in WTI futures highlights a bearish theme. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. The contract has recovered from its latest low, resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction. The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. This allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3981.6. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.
- WTI Crude up $0.43 or +0.73% at $59.08
- Natural Gas up $0.09 or +2.02% at $4.65
- Gold spot up $15.39 or +0.37% at $4174.26
- Copper down $1 or -0.19% at $518.4
- Silver up $0.48 or +0.9% at $53.8493
- Platinum up $27.94 or +1.73% at $1642.19
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GREECE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 13-Week GTB
| Type | 13-week GTB |
| Maturity | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Amount | E500mln |
| Target | E500mln |
| Previous | E500mln |
| Avg yield | 1.72% |
| Previous | 1.78% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.36x |
| Previous | 1.99x |
| Previous date | Oct 01, 2025 |
GBP: Vol Markets Signalling Significant GBP Vol Premium Into Budget
The pick-up in spot volatility this week has helped support implied at the margins, with the 1m contract (capturing the UK Autumn Budget on November 26th) rising back above 7 points to provide a decent premium over shorter-dated contracts that expire before the Budget.
While vols above 7 points look unimpressive in isolation, relative to EURUSD the move is extreme. The GBP 1m vol premium over EUR is now near 2 points and the widest since 2023 - signalling markets assigning a greater risk premium to GBP despite the background low vol regime.
We write on the latest expectations for the UK Budget in the Gilt Week Ahead here: https://media.marketnews.com/Gilt_Week_Ahead20251027_14ac41803e.pdf
And summarise the key drivers of GBP spot weakness here:
- Speculation that Reeves will break a manifesto pledge and raise income tax has been bolstered by the FT's reporting on a sizeable productivity estimate cut triggering a broader financing need.
- Higher income taxes would contain consumption, helping smooth the path for faster BoE rate cuts across 2026 (and potentially by the end of 2025).
- Food inflation remains a key driver of inflation expectations (e.g. Just this week: The Times: '‘Shrinkflation’ of supermarket staples rife on British high streets', BBC: 'Businesses face 'rising costs and staffing pressures''), however Tuesday's BRC-NIQ shop price data suggests we have passed the peak in food price gains.
- Food price inflation is particularly important given how well supported it has been this year via both higher employer's NIC contributions as well as incoming packaging taxes, but today's numbers endorse the step lower in ONS food inflation and may suggest inflation expectations will follow.
LOOK AHEAD: FOMC Decision And Press Conference
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate), All times ET
- 0530 Trump currently at APEC leader’s working dinner, South Korea
- 0700 MBA mortgage applications (-0.3%, --)
- 1000 Pending home sales MoM (4.0%, 1.2%)
- 1130 US Tsy $69B 17-wk bills
- 1130 US Tsy $30B 2Y FRN (91282CPG0)
- 1400 FOMC decision
- 1430 Powell press conference
No data releases for advance trade balance and retail/wholesale inventories due to the ongoing government shutdown
Source: Bloomberg, White House Pool, MNI
