EM CEEMEA CREDIT: First Quantum: Cobre Panama update

• -5,000 SFRX5 96.12/96.62 strangles, 1.75
• -3,000 SFRV5 96.31 straddles, 6.25-6.0
• -12,900 0QV5 96.93 calls 4.5 ref 96.905

Standing out in a broadly weak Conference Board consumer confidence survey for September, the "labor differential" (jobs "plentiful" minus "hard to get") fell to 7.8 from 11.1 in August (rev from 9.7). That's the weakest since 2017 when excluding the 2020-21 pandemic period.

• While the percentage of those seeing jobs as "hard to get" was steady at 19.1%, the proportion seeing jobs as "plentiful" (26.9%) was the lowest since February 2021, but excluding the April 2020-Feb 2021 pandemic period, it was the lowest since February 2017.
• This is a closely-watched indicator for broader labor market conditions. It's historically correlated with the unemployment rate and having come down from over 22 at the end of last year, this has shown a decisive cooling which points to a continued rise in joblessness. A similar reading in 2017 was consistent with unemployment around 5.0%, vs 4.3% as of August.

Futures coming off recent highs after latest Block sales:

• -3,000 USZ5 117-02, sell through 117-03 pos time bid at 1019:10ET, DV01 $42,600
• -10,400 FVZ5 109-09.5, sell through 109-10 post time bid at 1017:41ET, DV01 $456,400