EM CEEMEA CREDIT: First Abu Dhabi Bank: Q3 Earnings, Neutral for Credit
(FABUH; Aa3/AA-/AA-)
- Neutral take for credit. All in a solid read, with Q3 adding to previous quarters and scoring well on FY25 guidance targets. In secondary markets, the recently launched FABUH 4.38 Sep30 chart at z+83bp, some 10bp higher than the recent lows.
- For the 9M, growth in line with low double-digit guidance with lending at +13% ytd. Asset quality remains solid with CoR at 55bp in line with guidance <75bp and coverage at 106% (guidance >90%). Capital position remains adequate with CET1 at 13.7% (guidance >13.5%).
- Looking at Q3, NII shows +2% y/y at just below AED5bn, sequentially up 1% q/q. F&C and other income are +31% y/y at AED4.3bn, sequentially down 4% q/q. With cost base under control and lower y/y impairments, PBT reached AED6.4bn, +21% y/y but sequentially lower (-4% q/q). Marginally lower NIM remains stable at 1.76% (-4bp sequentially).
- Growth continues in Q3 with lending 13% y/y at AED596bn supported by expansion in deposit base (+4% y/y), resulting in total assets expansion to AED1.38tn, +14% sequentially.
- Asset quality remains adequate in Q3 with NPL at 2.6%. Liquidity shows further improvement sequentially with LCR at 158%.
- Capital position remains adequate with proactive management of the capital structure delivering CET1 at 13.7%. Total RWA sit at AED741bn, up AED101bn vs YE24.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: $44.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $43.773 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $43.548 @ 08:16 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $41.052 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.402- 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal is trading higher as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on the $44.00 handle next. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 44.533, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.052, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support For Now
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- RES 1: 1.3848 High Sep 15
- PRICE: 1.3800 @ 08:07 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A sharp sell-off in USDCAD early last week resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.
GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt Calls, 90.61/90.72.
