US DATA: Firms’ Unit Cost Expectations Hold Recent Moderation – Atlanta Fed
The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey saw a second month having pared but not fully reversed tariff-driven increases whilst firms’ own-price expectations reversed a sizeable increase seen the previous quarter.
- 1Y ahead inflation expectations from the regular monthly survey, defined as the mean expected change in unit costs, were near unchanged in August at 2.26% after 2.29% in July. That’s after easing in the three previous months from a recent peak of 2.76% in April.
- It remains a little above the 2.04% seen in December or the 1.94% averaged in 2019.
- A separate quarterly question meanwhile saw mixed developments for firms’ own price expectations, with a firming in realized inflation over the past twelve months but softer expectations ahead.
- Specifically, realized own price inflation stood at 4.3% Y/Y after 3.9% in the May survey, its highest since Aug 2024, whilst expectations cooled from 5.0% (highest since Dec 2022) to 3.9% (lowest since Nov 2024 survey).
- Away from inflation expectations, the summary notes that “Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" increased”.
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US: Republican House Majority Shrinks With Green Retirement
House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) narrow majority in the House of Representatives has shrunk slightly with the resignation of Rep Mark Green (R-TN). The new balance in the House is 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats. The date of a special election to fill Green's seat will be determined by Tennessee Governor Bill Lee (R-TN), who is likely to schedule the election in the solid red seat to take place as soon as possible.
- The new balance means that Johnson can only drop three votes on any piece of legislation, if all members are present and voting.
- With Green's retirement, there are now four vacant seats following the deaths in office of three Democrat Congressmen: Jerry Connolly, Raúl Grijalva, and Sylvester Turner. Special elections to fill the three seats will take place in Connolly's former Virginia 11th District seat on September 9, Grijalva's former Arizona 7th District seat on September 23, and Turner's former Texas 18th District seat on November 4.
- CBS notes that Green said earlier this month, when announcing his resignation, he was returning to the private sector to start his own business, but did not provide details about the business.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Interviews With Former Fed Assistant General Counsel
- MNI interviews former assistant general counsel to the Fed's Board of Governors on threats to Fed independence -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: SOFR Softens, But Tsy Cash Raise To Reapply Pressure
Secured rates pulled back sharply Friday, with SOFR dropping 4bp to 4.30%. That's the lowest print of July so far (last this low on Jun 24), and is almost certainly attributable to the usual monthly cash inflow into the market from Government Sponsored Enterprises. Those inflows will reverse out later this week, with upside pressure potentially exacerbated by net Treasury cash raising through Bill settlements ($35B Tuesday, $32B Thursday) as it rebuilds the TGA post-debt limit raise.
- Effective Fed funds remained unchanged as usual at 4.33%.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.30%, -0.04%, $2775B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.29%, -0.04%, $1119B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.29%, -0.04%, $1085B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $110B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $277B
