US DATA: Firms’ Unit Cost Expectations Extend Plateau – Atlanta Fed
Oct-22 16:23
The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey saw 1Y ahead expectations keep to a narrow range, having pared but not fully reversed the tariff-driven increase. Unit sale comparisons to “normal” levels were less pessimistic than recent quarters.
- 1Y ahead inflation expectations from the regular monthly survey, defined as the mean expected change in unit costs, was essentially unchanged in October at 2.27% after two months at 2.26% and before that 2.29% in July.
- It consolidates an easing from a recent peak of 2.76% in April but remains a little above the 2.04% seen in December or the 1.94% averaged in 2019.
- A separate quarterly question showed a slight relative improvement in firms’ unit sales levels, interestingly led by medium and small firms whereas large firms reported their largest decline in unit sales relative to “normal” since July 2020.
- We say a relative improvement as the average industry-weighted response saw sales being -5.5% below “normal”, its least negative since Apr 2024. The chart below shows a persistent bias to negative readings here, even if they were smaller (-2% averaged in the three years ahead of the pandemic).
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US TSYS: Extending Lows As Fed Speaker Trio Gets Underway
Sep-22 16:07
- Treasury futures extending lows with Fed Gov Miran headlines crossing: sees appropriate FF rate "roughly 2-2.5%"
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades -2.5 at 112-21.5 (yld 4.1486% +.0212) - technical support at 112-22/112-15+ (Low Sep 19 / High Aug 5 and 14).
- Curves mixed: 2s10s -.395 at 54.983, 5s30s +1.329 at 107.668.
- US$ index softer, Bbg's BBDXY -0.98 at 1197.52.
US STOCKS: Late Morning Equities Roundup: Nasdaq & SPX New Highs, Tech Support
Sep-22 15:58
- Stocks are firmer ahead midday Monday - SPX eminis and Nasdaq indexes extending record highs with the DJIA not far off Friday's record high of 46,396.47.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 5.36 points (0.01%) at 46314.79, S&P E-Minis up 7.5 points (0.11%) at 6729.75 vs. 6737.50 high, Nasdaq up 60.4 points (0.3%) at 22692.67 vs. 22709.97 high.
- Information Technology sector shares continued to lead gainers in the first half with hardware makers outperforming: Teradyne +9.36%, Skyworks Solutions +5.21%, Oracle Corp +4.36%, Western Digital +4.23% and Apple +4.15%.
- Meanwhile, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sector shares also supported indexes: pharmaceuticals primarily supported the former: Moderna +6.72%, Universal Health Services +2.13%, Pfizer +2.12% and Molina Healthcare +2.00%; while Tesla +3.82%, NIKE +1.69% and Yum! Brands +1.22% supported the Discretionary sector.
- On the flipside, Consumer Staples and Financial Services sector shares underperformed: Kenvue -6.92%, Archer-Daniels-Midland -3.67%, Keurig Dr Pepper -3.32%. Meanwhile, Coinbase Global -3.61%, Interactive Brokers Group -2.09% and KKR & Co -1.84% weighed on the Financial Services sector.
UN: Key Speakers For 1st Day Of GA On 23 Sep Inc. Trump, Lula, & Macron
Sep-22 15:37
The United Nations' General Assembly's general Debate gets underway tomorrow (Tuesday, 23 September), with a number of prominent national leaders set to speak. The general debate gets underway at 09:00ET/14:00BST/15:00CET. As has been the case in almost every UNGA General Debate since 1955, Brazil will open the session. The UN seeks to limit addresses from heads of state/gov't/ministers to a maximum of 15 minutes. Given this timeframe, key speakers on 23 September are listed below with their (likely) timings. Livestream available here.
- 09:00ET/14:00BST/22:00JST - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
- 09:15ET/14:15BST/22:15JST - US President Donald Trump
- 09:30ET/14:30BST/22:30JST - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto
- 09:45ET/14:45BST/22:45JST - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
- 10:30ET/15:30BST/23:30JST - South Korean President Lee Jae Myung
- 12:30ET/17:30BST/01:30JST - South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
- 15:30ET/20:30BST/04:30JST - Chilean President Gabriel Boric
- 16:15ET/21:15BST/05:15JST - French President Emmanuel Macron
- 16:45ET/21:45BST/05:45JST - Colombian President Gustavo Petro
- 17:00ET/22:00BST/06:00JST - Polish President Karol Nawrocki
