SECURITY: Finnish Police Confirm Damage To Gulf Telecoms Cable, Vessel Seized
Finnish police have confirmed that, as part of a joint operation with Estonia, a vessel has been sei...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: S&P Mfg PMI, ISM Mfg, Tsy Bills, Fed Blackout
The Fed entered policy blackout after midnight tonight through December 11, the day after the final FOMC of 2025. That said, Chairman Powell speaks at a memorial event this evening. Also of note, without announcing who or when, Pres Trump said Sunday he has decided who will be the next Fed Chair. Powell's 4 year term ends May 15, 2026.
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/01 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI (51.9, --)
- 12/01 1000 ISM Manufacturing (48.7, 49.0)
- 12/01 1000 ISM Prices Paid (58.0, --)
- 12/01 1000 ISM New Orders (49.4, --)
- 12/01 1000 ISM Employment (46.0, --)
- 12/01 1130 US Tsy $86B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
- 12/01 2000 Fed Chair Powell open remarks memorial event, panel discussion (text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
SOFR: Mix Of Limited Positioning Swings Seen In Futures Around Thanksgiving
OI data points to a mix of net positioning swings in the white pack of the SOFR futures strip between Wednesday’s close and Friday’s settlement
- SFRZ5 seemingly saw net short cover, while SFRH6 seemingly saw net short setting and SFRM6 saw net long cover.
- A mix of net short setting and long cover was then seen further out the strip.
- A reminder that volume was hampered by the presence of the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday’s technical issues at the CME, with the latter resulting in a further shortening of trading hours.
| 28-Nov-25 | 26-Nov-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,363,486 | 1,355,698 | +7,788 | Whites | -6,365 |
SFRZ5 | 1,690,713 | 1,709,755 | -19,042 | Reds | -496 |
SFRH6 | 1,351,866 | 1,343,237 | +8,629 | Greens | +4,814 |
SFRM6 | 1,126,543 | 1,130,283 | -3,740 | Blues | -4,571 |
SFRU6 | 1,099,480 | 1,106,614 | -7,134 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,146,277 | 1,151,846 | -5,569 |
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SFRH7 | 853,559 | 836,203 | +17,356 |
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SFRM7 | 788,258 | 793,407 | -5,149 |
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SFRU7 | 855,248 | 854,727 | +521 |
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SFRZ7 | 864,928 | 855,845 | +9,083 |
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SFRH8 | 432,490 | 438,271 | -5,781 |
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SFRM8 | 407,543 | 406,552 | +991 |
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SFRU8 | 374,486 | 374,061 | +425 |
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SFRZ8 | 331,561 | 334,331 | -2,770 |
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SFRH9 | 202,639 | 207,073 | -4,434 |
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SFRM9 | 206,969 | 204,761 | +2,208 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gold Points North
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. Note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of the corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3991.7. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
- Recent weakness in WTI futures highlights a bearish theme. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. The contract has recovered from its latest low, resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
