EU TRANSPORTATION: Finnair: Reaffirms net 1-2x target at CMD

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact. Last Friday’s move down confirmed a resumption of the bear leg - support at $60.40, the Oct 2 low, has been breached. This highlights an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the move down opens $57.50 next, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial key resistance is at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s very strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4200.00 handle, and $4239.7, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support lies at $3862.6, 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude down $1.34 or -2.25% at $58.16
• Natural Gas down $0.06 or -1.86% at $3.06
• Gold spot up $32.46 or +0.79% at $4141.83
• Copper down $15.3 or -2.97% at $499.4
• Silver down $0.35 or -0.67% at $51.9834
• Platinum up $30.81 or +1.88% at $1665.95

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The key support zone to monitor is 5552.07 - 5478.12, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday appears corrective - for now. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6602.32, and last Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1241.48 pts or -2.58% at 46847.32 and the TOPIX ended 63.6 pts lower or -1.99% at 3133.99.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 24.273 pts or -0.62% at 3865.229 and the HANG SENG ended 448.13 pts lower or -1.73% at 25441.35.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 196.61 pts or -0.81% at 24190.36, FTSE 100 lower by 10.76 pts or -0.11% at 9432.42, CAC 40 down 55.35 pts or -0.7% at 7879.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 39.31 pts or -0.71% at 5529.05.
• Dow Jones mini down 237 pts or -0.51% at 46061, S&P 500 mini down 54.25 pts or -0.81% at 6640.25, NASDAQ mini down 259.75 pts or -1.04% at 24663.

The French 2026 budget bill looks for a deficit of 4.7-5.0% next year (down from an expected 5.4% in 2025, 5.8% in 2024), according to the budget watchdog (via Reuters).

• Before resigning the first time round, PM Lecornu had said that he would target a deficit of 4.7%.
• His predecessor Bayrou had looked for a 4.6% deficit in 2026 before being ousted by a no-confidence vote.
• The French fiscal watchdog notes that Lecornu's 2026 consolidation measures total "over E30bln".
• This is quite a bit less than the E44bln Bayrou was looking for.
• However, the watchdog suggests both economic assumptions and proposed measures might be too optimistic: ""FRENCH FISCAL WATCHDOG: FRANCE AT RISK OF UNDER-DELIVERING ON SPENDING AND TAX MEASURES IN 2026 BUDGET" Reuters
• Contained reaction in the 10-year OAT/Bund spread so far, currently around 83-83.5bps.