POLAND: FinMin Flags Inbound Additional Fiscal Consolidation Measures
Oct-01 07:22
- Finance Minister Andrzej Domański told PAP that the government will take additional steps to reduce deficits after a document outlining its medium-term fiscal strategy showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio was poised to exceed the 55% threshold in 2028, which would trigger statutory 'prudential procedures'. Domański clarified that the forecast did not account for additional consolidation measures, which should prevent reaching the 55% threshold. Some analysts had earlier speculated that Poland was unlikely to reach the 55% threshold of the constitutional 60% debt cap, as the government can always resort to the tried and tested strategy of financing part of spending through dedicated extra-budgetary funds.
- Polish authorities detained Ukrainian diving instructor Volodymyr Z. accused of his involvement in blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipeline, acting on a European Arrest Warrant (EAW) issued by Germany. The decision on a potential extradition is up to a Polish court.
- The WSJ reported last year that the German investigators 'struggled at one point to secure the cooperation of Polish authorities' as 'Polish officials initially refused to hand over the CCTV footage of the port' where the saboteurs moored their boat and later 'told their German colleagues that the footage had been routinely destroyed'. They later failed to act on the EAW and allowed Volodymyr Z. to leave for Ukraine in a 'major blow to the German probe'. RMF FM reported that this time around, Volodymyr Z. inadvertently attracted attention by trying to buy property in Poland.
- Poland 2050 (P2050) top brass approved the decision to nominate Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz for the position of Deputy Prime Minister after she narrowly defeated Paulina Hennig-Kloska in a party caucus vote. Onet cited P2050 sources as noting that she was expected to take a more confrontational attitude towards Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who 'won't give [her] anything because he hates her', which may lead to further tensions withing the governing coalition.
- Business Insider reported that political pressure from the US could block the government's plans to raise the corporate-income tax on banks, which would bring an additional PLN6.6bn in budget revenue.
- Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.0 in September from 46.6 prior, exceeding the consensus forecast of 47.0. The latest print 'rounded off a weak Q3' but 'the direction of travel was encouraging'.
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MNI: SPAIN AUG MANUF PMI 54.3 (52.1 FCAST, 51.9 JUL)
Sep-01 07:15
- MNI: SPAIN AUG MANUF PMI 54.3 (52.1 FCAST, 51.9 JUL)
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Call Spread
Sep-01 07:13
ERM6 98.3125/98.4375, bought for 2.5 in 15k.
EFSF ISSUANCE: Apr-29 / Feb-34 Tap Dual Tranche: Guidance
Sep-01 07:12
Apr-29 tap:
- Guidance: MS+10bps area
- Coupon: 3.500% (150 days accrued), Annual ACT/ACT
- Maturity: 11 April 2029
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAL3
Feb-34 tap:
- MS+34bps area
- Coupon: 2.875% (207 days accrued), Annual ACT/ACT
- Maturity: 13 February 2034
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAN9
Across both tranches:
- Size: E3.5bln maximum combined
- Settlement: 8 September 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: LBBW / NOMURA (DM/B&D) / TD
- Denoms: EUR 1,000 x 1,000
- Target market: Professionals / Eligible Counterparties only (all distribution channels), each as defined in MiFID II
- Issuer: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
- Ratings: Aaa (stable) / AA- (stable) / AA-
- Risk Weighting: 0%
- Format: RegS / Bearer Notes (TEFRA rules apply, no communications with or into the U.S.)
- Timing: Books open, today's business
The EFSF sent an RFP (Request for Proposal) last Wednesday regarding an upcoming transaction. That meant a transaction was likely this week, MNI pencilled in today or tomorrow. We had initially expected an EFSF transaction in either late August or by mid-September (September had looked likely after the ESM RfP was released on Wednesday 20 August). On size, E3bln seemed like the most likely option to us for today's transaction. The transaction concludes issuance for the EFSF this year.
