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SPAIN: Blow To PM Sanchez As PSOE Suffer's Regional Election Losses
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez suffered another blow to his position on 21 December, when his centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) suffered significant losses in the election to the autonomous region of Extremadura's Legislative Assembly. Historically one of the PSOE's strongholds, the party won just 18 of the 65 seats on offer, down from 28 previously and representing an all-time low. The centre-right People's Party (PP) of regional President Maria Guardiola won 29 seats, up one from 28 previously.
- The main gains came on the far right, with Vox winning 11 seats, representing an increase of six, and on the far left, with the Podemos–IU–AV alliance taking seven seats, up from four previously. The result leaves the PP short of a majority, with Guardiola facing the choice of re-forming the coalition with Vox, or governing as a minority administration.
- A poor result in Extremadura comes with Sanchez under pressure amid a raft of scandals within the PSOE that have hit low-level activists and high-ranking officials, with the PM's wife and brother also subject to a probe into alleged influence peddling.
- Three regional elections are due in H126. Aragon, Castile and Leon, and Andalusia are all currently led by gov'ts headed by the PP. Nevertheless, further losses could further damage Sanchez's standing as the next general election approaches by August 2027 at the latest.
- On predictions market site Polymarket, bettors assign a 33% implied probability that Sanchez is out as PM by July 2026, and a 50% chance that he leaves office by the end of next year.
Chart 1. Extremadura Election, Seats
Source: congreso.es, MNI
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 3.99bn at 1.1675/1.1725.
USDJPY 1.22bn at 157.50.
- EURUSD: 1.1675 (1.4bn), 1.1700 (1.41bn), 1.1720 (244mln), 1.1725 (932mln), 1.1800 (570mln), 1.1815 (1.02bn).
- GBPUSD: 1.3400 (1.39bn).
- EURGBP: 0.8750 (330mln).
- USDJPY: 157.00 (765mln), 157.50 (1.22bn).
- USDCAD: 1.3760 (436mln), 1.3800 (440mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6610 (550mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5780 (324mln).
