GBPUSD TECHS: Finds Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2926 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 27
- SUP 1: 1.2871 20-day EMA and intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.2737 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
The trend in GBPUSD is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The pair has found support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2871. A stronger recovery and a breach of the 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Clearance of the 20-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 25-Feb | 1100 | Feb | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25-Feb | 1400 | BOE's Pill remarks at BEAR Conference | |
| 26-Feb | 1630 | BOE's Dhingra on Trade fragmentation and monetary policy | |
| 28-Feb | 0700 | BOE's Ramsden speech on MonPol in geopolitical fragmentation | |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Jan | BOE Lending to Individuals/ M4 |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 04-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Services/ Composite PMI (Final) |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Mar | 1500 | BOE's Mann lecture at RBNZ on 'holding anchor' | |
| 11-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Mar | 0730 | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Jan | GDP/ Trade / Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 14-Mar | 0730 | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed | |
| 18-Mar | 0930 | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
| 19-Mar | 0001 | Feb | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Resistance Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 ‘24 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 106.975 High Feb 10
- RES 1: 106.855 High Feb 12 / 21 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 106.805 @ 05:57 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: 106.630 Low Feb 20 and a key near term support
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, marking the pullback from the early February highs as corrective - for now. However, recent weakness also highlights a bear threat and support to watch lies at 106.630, the Feb 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume a bear cycle and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, initial firm resistance to watch is 106.855, the Feb 12 and 21 high. A break would be bullish.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Feb | 700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 25-Feb | 1300 | EU | ECB's Schnabel at BOE's Conference on Balance Sheet |
| 26-Feb | 700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 26-Feb | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26-Feb | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 26-Feb | EU | ECB's Lagarde & Cipollone in G20 FMs/ CB Governors meeting | |
| 27-Feb | 745 | FR | PPI |
| 27-Feb | 800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 27-Feb | EU | M3 | |
| 27-Feb | 900 | IT | ISTAT Consumer/ Business Confidence |
| 27-Feb | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 27-Feb | 1230 | EU | Publication of MonPol Meeting Account |
| 28-Feb | 700 | DE | Import/Export Prices/ Retail Sales |
| 28-Feb | 745 | FR | HICP (p)/ Consumer Spending/ GDP |
| 28-Feb | 855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 28-Feb | 900 | DE | North Rhine Westphalia/ Bavaria CPI |
| 28-Feb | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 28-Feb | 900 | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 28-Feb | 1000 | IT | Flash Inflation |
| 28-Feb | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
