EU FINANCIALS: Financials – Week in Review
Nov-14 16:21
Headlines
- ABN AMRO announced it would acquire NIBC from Blackstone for 0.85x book, expecting an 18% ROIC by 2029 and a -70 bps CET1 impact on close.
- AT1 deals by BPER and Barclays struggled to perform, despite coming with coupon at or above our FV. AT1 € index returns were positive. https://mni.marketnews.com/4p93T4B
- As the week came to a close, UK banks underperformed sharply following headlines of changes to the planned November government budget.
Results
- Japanese financials posted firm results, especially on the income side. Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho and Orix's posted strong beats that we believe are credit positive. Slightly higher provisions at Sumitomo Mitsui offset strong revenue generation.
- Munich Re was the pick of the German insurers. The insurance result at Hannover Re was still very strong, albeit with a slightly worse investment result. Allianz results were typically solid.
- Generali and Aviva both delivered strong quarters, with the latter confirming that its Direct Line integration is ahead of schedule. Swiss Life posted good results, in line with expectations
- Deutsche Pfandbriefbank posted weak results, but bonds were unchanged after selling off sharply two weeks ago. https://mni.marketnews.com/3LxzU8b
- Banca Monte dei Paschi delivered strong results. It expects to add details to its Mediobanca integration strategy in early 2026
- Banca IFIS reported in line results and noted its integration of Illimity remains on track.
- Sabadell results were slightly disappointing as NII and fee income were below expectaions.
- ABN AMRO reported marginally disappointing earnings, but a provisions released helped it hit its operating income expectations.
- KBC Group met strong expectations.
- Grenke results were positive on volume growth, although provisions & cost of risk remain elevated.
- 3i Group results were slightly negative as Action’s slower like-for-like sales (6.3% vs 9.8%) disappointed equity markets.
New Issues
- ANZ's Tier 2 came 5bps inside our FV of UKT+132 and has rallied 10bps.
- Soc Gen, Nordea and Bupa issued Tier 2's. Bupa came well inside our FV and is marginally tighter still. Nordea and SocGen are slightly wider in line with the market.
- Spuerkeess, ING and Bank of New Zealand issued Sr Non-Preferred bonds, all a few bps wide of our FV.
- Monte dei Paschi's Sr Preferred bond came at our FV - we highlight that at times Green bonds can trade well inside their FV's in Italy. https://mni.marketnews.com/47UlVRc
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SECURITY: US Edges Closer To Imposing New Penalties On Russia
Oct-15 16:16
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “anyone purchasing Russian energy is subsidizing attacks on the Ukrainian people,” per Reuters. Bessent’s comment comes as the US appears to be edging towards imposing new penalties on Russia, and the Trump administration weighs up selling Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles.
- Earlier today, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the NATO defence ministerial meeting in Brussels, “If this war does not end, if there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take the steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.”
- US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told La Repubblica yesterday, “Tomorrow, the US will make an important announcement regarding arms supplies to Ukraine… There are almost—I don’t want to say unlimited possibilities—but certainly there are many consequences for not reaching a peace agreement that could be used against the Russians.”
- Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) “left the door open Tuesday to voting on a long-stalled Russia sanctions bill as soon as this month. He didn’t commit to putting it on the floor — noting he still has to coordinate strategy with the White House — but said he believes the issue is ‘pretty ripe.’”
- US Senators are also working to set up a bipartisan meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside his White House meeting with Trump on Friday.
US TSYS: Extending Lows Coincides With EU Public Contract Headlines
Oct-15 16:14
- Treasuries extending lows - through early overnight levels, coinciding with EU headlines that the EU is discussing "preferential treatment to give domestic firms bidding for public contracts worth about €2.5 trillion ($2.9 trillion) a year," Bbg.
- Note, however, 10Y Bund also declined and is rebounding. Currently, Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract trades 113-09.5 (-3.5), yld tapped 4.0359% high; curves flatter: 2s10s -2.675 at 52.260, 5s30s -2.631 at 99.664.
- Initial technical support at 112-26 (20-day EMA) followed by the 50-day EMA at 112-16. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index -3.09 at 1211.35, stocks claw off lows: DJIA up 106.35 points (0.23%) at 46,375.71, S&P E-Minis up 31 points (0.46%) at 6,716.5, Nasdaq up 165.2 points (0.7%) at 22,684.25.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU Officials Comment on France's Fiscal Situation
Oct-15 16:03
EU officials comment on France's fiscal situation - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
