CZECHIA: Finance Ministry To Release Updated Economic Forecasts

Looking a little more at this morning’s public sector finance data, the GBP20.7bln PSNB figure for June was GBP6.6bln more than June 2024 and “the second-highest June borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, after that of June 2020”, according to the ONS. The OBR projected a reading of GBP17.1bln in March 2025, with BBG consensus standing at GBP17.5bln. 

• Central government current receipts were GBP5.7bln more than a year ago at GBP86.6bln. Following the change in employer NI contributions from April 2025, compulsory social contributions were up GBP3.1bln Y/Y to GBP17.4bln.
• Expenditures rose a more notable GBP12.4bln versus June 2024, totalling GBP97.1bln. This was largely due to a GBP8.4bln rise in interest payable to GBP16.4bln - GBP2.4bln above the OBR’s projection. There was a 1.7% rise in RPI between March-April 2025, which was reflected in increased linker interest payments in June (“capital uplift”). 

• RES 4: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.000 - Psychological round number 
• RES 2: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $39.132 - High Jul 14     
• PRICE: $38.834 @ 08:07 BST Jul 22  
• SUP 1: $37.271 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.942 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $33.967 - Low Jun 3 
• SUP 4: $32.615 - Low May 22 

Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and continue to point north. On Jul 11, Silver cleared a key short-term resistance at $37.317, the Jun 18 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on the $39.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $37.271, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3744/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17 
• PRICE: 1.3692 @ 08:04 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 1.3639/3557 Low Jul 08 / 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Resistance in USDCAD at 1.3744, the 50-day EMA, remains intact for now. It has been pierced, however, a clear break of it is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. This would open 1.3798 initially, the Jun 23 high. For now, a bear trend remains in place. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.