PLN: Finance Minister Touts Fiscal Consolidation Measures

BOE-dated OIS continue to price just ~4bps of easing through November, with 9bps of cuts priced through year-end. We think the November meeting is much more “live” than current market pricing implies, with focus on next week’s labour market and inflation data double header.

• Today’s domestic calendar is light. However, tomorrow will see Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor & Greene appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee (alongside separate comments from Deputy Governor Breeden at a money and payments conference).
• SONIA futures are flat to -2.5 ticks through the blues, with the strip bear steepening alongside the Gilt curve (more on Gilts to follow shortly).

• RES 4: $40.323 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $42.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $40.850 - Intraday high      
• PRICE: $40.688 @ 07:58 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $38.585 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $37.661 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support   
• SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal traded sharply higher Monday. Resistance at $35.930, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $38.585, the 20-day EMA.

Gilt calls, 90.03/90.19 range.