SOUTH AFRICA: Finance Minister To Brief Lawmakers On 2025 Budget
- Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will brief lawmakers on the 2025 National Budget at 08:00GMT/10:00SAST. The African National Congress (ANC) is preparing for an uphill battle to find enough votes for the spending plan. TimesLIVE reported that senior figures in the Democratic Alliance (DA) believe that the ANC's actions "pushed the price higher" while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) gave no indication of willingness to enter negotiations. Meanwhile, ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula said that contentious legislation already signed into law (e.g. BELA or NHI bills) but opposed by the DA will not be part of any budget deal. This comes as BusinessDay reported that in the weeks leading to the Budget Speech, the DA demanded amending the Expropriation Act and the National Health Insurance Act in exchange for its support for the spending plan.
- The South African Development Community (SADC) announced that peacekeepers from South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania will withdraw from the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Earlier this year, 16 South African soldiers were killed in the conflict, which drew public attention to their precarious position.
- The National Treasury will sell 1.875% 2033 linkers and 5.125% 2058 linkers today.
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GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2955.3 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
- PRICE: $2895.4 @ 07:27 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $2852.7 - Low Feb 7
- SUP 2: $2799.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2731.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2689.5 - Low Jan 20
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: US CPI is at the forefront
- Although Bund has seen a fairly limited range on low traded Volumes Overnight, US Tnotes is seeing ok early volumes going into the European session.
- Nonetheless, Bond Futures are still falling lower, initially on the heavy supply Yesterday, Tariff Risks concerns remain, and the Fed in no rush to adjust Rates.
- Next downside Bund target is now at 132.34 (gap), while resistance moves down to 133.13, followed by the big 133.86 level.
- Noted Yesterday that the US 10yr Yield 4.55% level, not a tech level equated to 108.26+, this has now been tested overnight.
- Next upside target in US Yield is at 4.60%, this level equates 108.16 Today.
- This morning sees the Italian IP and the Portugal final CPI, but these won't be market movers, with the main focus on the US CPI today.
- SUPPLY: UK £1bn 2045 linker (won't impact Gilt), German 2050, 2054 (equates combined to 15.9k Buxl) these could actually somewhat weigh into the longer end. Greece 2035, and Portugal 2034, 2042, 2052 won't impact Bund. US Sells $42bn of 10yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: France 2056 Benchmark.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Elderson (at MNI), Nagel, BoE Greene, Fed Powell, Bostic, Waller, but don't expect anything new from Powell, only the Q&A can sometime differ.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bull Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- PRICE: 119.97 @ Close Feb 11
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle.
