EUROPEAN INFLATION: Final German July Data Sees Lower Airfares, Insurance [1/2]

German final July HICP was unrevised from the flash readings at 1.8% Y/Y (2.0% prior) and 0.4% M/M. The final reading to CPI was also unrevised at 2.0% Y/Y (2.0% prior) and 0.3% M/M whilst core CPI printed at 2.7% Y/Y (2.7% prior). The main conclusions from the flash reading were confirmed. 

• Services decelerated further to 3.1% Y/Y (as tracked after state-level data), the lowest rate since August 2022, with the contribution vs June falling 0.09pp. Goods inflation almost exactly cancelled that out with 1.0% Y/Y (a +0.08pp contribution vs June) for its highest since March.
• Within the services-heavy subcategories, moves were mixed and limited for the most part. Communication accelerated quite notably (-0.6% vs -1.2% prior) but it has a small weight.
• The mixed-weighting transport (1.0% vs 1.6% prior) and "other goods and services" categories (5.2% vs 5.8% prior) were more decisive this time, with airfares (-6.1% vs -1.3% prior) and insurance (5.5% vs 8.1% prior, coming from a 16.6% high last December) mainly behind the contributions declines here - that is all in line with our view from the state-level data from the flash release.
• Looking at the goods-heavy categories, clothing and footwear stood out the most, accelerating to 0.9% from -0.3% in June and pointing to less significant or changing seasonality of summer sales here.
• [See the disclaimer below the table on using the changes in contributions with caution]