SOUTH KOREA: Final Arguments In Yoon's Impeachment Trial Set For 25 Feb
South Korea's Constitutional Court has confirmed that the next hearing in President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment trial, scheduled for Tuesday 25 Feb, will hear the final arguments from each side before the court begins deliberations on whether Yoon should be formally impeached. The court has until June to deliver its verdict on whether to remove Yoon in line with the vote of the National Assembly, which followed the president's abortive imposition of martial law in December 2024, or restore him to office.
- Earlier on 20 Feb, Yoon became the first sitting president to stand trial in a criminal case. Yoon stands accused of fomenting insurrection, a charge which if convicted of could see Yoon given a lengthy prison sentence (or even the death penalty, although this is seen as very unlikely). The criminal case is separate from the impeachment trial in the constitutional court.
- The ongoing trial has highlighted deep divisions in the South Korean electorate. Support for the conservative People Power Party (PPP), from which Yoon hails, has spiked in the aftermath of his arrest. If Yoon is eventually impeached the constitution requires a snap presidential election in 60 days.
- Hypothetical polling shows DPK leader Lee Jae-myung, who Yoon narrowly defeated in the 2022 election, as the clear frontrunner. However, the rising support for the PPP and the inevitable political furore that would surround Yoon's impeachment could see an as-yet-unnamed PPP candidate make a charge for the presidency.
Chart 1. Legislative Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Realmeter, Gallup Korea, NBS, WinG Korea, Jowon C&I, Research View, KOPRA, Flower Research, EveryResearch, Media Research, Gongjung, Media Tomato, Ace Research, Hankook Research, Ipsos, Kstat, Hangil Research, KIR, Embrain Public, MNI
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Jan22 $1.0345-50(E1.6bln), $1.0500(E1.1bln); Jan23 $1.0295-00(E2.7bln), $1.0400(E1.8bln), $1.0435-40(E1.0bln); Jan24 $1.0350(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Jan22 Y155.50($1.2bln); Jan23 Y155.00($1.5bln)
- AUD/USD: Jan22 $0.6210(A$2.1bln)
- USD/CAD: Jan23 C$1.4450($1.1bln); Jan24 C$1.4380($1.4bln)
- USD/CNY: Jan23 Cny7.5000($1.9bln); Jan24 Cny7.4500($1.4bln)
SONIA: Continued Upside Options
It's been all upside Options in the past couple of Weeks, in the Euribor and also Sonias, all looking for deeper cuts via Options.
- SFIU5 95.90/96.25/96.60c fly, bought for 7 in 10k.
SLOVAKIA: PM Expected To Survive Confidence Vote
The gov't of PM Robert Fico faces a vote of no confidence in the National Council as opposition leader Michal Simecka accuses Fico of preparing to take the country out of the European Union. Reuters reports that Fico has "said Slovakia needed to prepare for "all possible crisis situations" which the EU could face in the short term, suggesting even a break-up of the bloc." Simecka told the legislature "This cannot be read in any other way than... what we had warned of: that the government [...] is preparing the ground for leading Slovakia out of the European Union,"
- Fico leads a left-wing nationalist gov't that has bolstered relations with eurosceptic populists such as Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and sought to continue diplomatic and energy trade links with Russia despite EU sanctions in the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- The governing three-party coalition holds a narrow majority in the National Council, with 76 seats compared to 74 for the opposition parties, that are primarily pro-EU liberals and conservatives. The governing coalition is expected to hold, meaning the no-confidence motion will probably fail in a vote this evening/overnight.
- The no-confidence debate is taking place behind closed doors. Fico argued his presentation of a report from the Slovak Information Service required secrecy. Speaker Peter Ziga, who hails from Fico's left-wing nationalist Smer-SD party, acquiesced. Simecka warned of setting a dangerous precedent, calling the decision "a scandal and an incredible shame".
