STIR: FI Weakness Spilling Into Euribor Futures; Awaiting Tomorrow's PMIs
A surge in crude benchmarks is weighing on core FI this morning, and spilling over into the EUR front-end. Euribor futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues at typing. This week’s ranges have been relatively contained, with markets awaiting tomorrows October flash PMIs for the next update on Eurozone economic momentum.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to lean in favour of one more cut this cycle, albeit with little conviction around meeting-specific timings. There are 18bps of easing priced through September 2026.
- We don’t expect any meaningful commentary from ECB Chief Economist Lane, who collects an award in Dublin today.
- Yesterday, we updated our regular ECBspeak wrap publication
- This includes an updated Governing Council Hawk/Dove matrix.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-25 | 1.925 | -0.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.891 | -3.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.868 | -5.9 |
| Mar-26 | 1.814 | -11.3 |
| Apr-26 | 1.797 | -13.0 |
| Jun-26 | 1.765 | -16.2 |
| Jul-26 | 1.759 | -16.8 |
| Sep-26 | 1.748 | -17.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
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WTI TECHS: (X5) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $61.98 @ 07:19 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.
USD: Riksbank's decision is a close call
- The Dollar is closer to flat going into the European session against most G10s, some immediate focus is on the Kiwi, the worst early performer, as NZDUSD look to challenge Yesterday's low.
- The cross hovers near few support levels seen at 0.5833 (Sept Low), 0.5818, but more importantly 0.5800 August low and lowest printed level since mid April.
- Early focus is on the Stokkie and the Riksbank decision.
- While the Median consensus is for an Unchanged Rate at 2%, the broader expectation among Economist is far more split between a 25bp Cut and a Hold.
- The SEK is fairly stable ahead of the Decision, down a tiny 0.05% against the EUR, and a small 0.14% vs the Dollar.
- The Rest of G10 FX Currencies are steady, even the known volatile Yen only trades in a 27 pips range.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3831.4 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: $3759.2 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3756.3 @ 07:27 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
- SUP 2: $3594.0 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3484.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday and today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3783.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3594.0, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
