FED FUNDS FUTURES: FFN5 Sold

• RES 4: 6249.00 - High Feb 21      
• RES 3: 6200.00 1.50 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6172.50 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 6155.25 High Jun 24    
• PRICE: 6147.00 @ 07:25 BST Jun 25  
• SUP 1: 5959.00/5922.67 Low Jun 23 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Sights are on the 6200.00 handle, a Fibonacci projection. Key support remains at the 50-day EMA - at 5922.67. A clear break of it would signal a reversal.

• RES 4: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24 
• RES 3: 170.47 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Jul - Aug ‘24 downleg  
• RES 2: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 169.71 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 168.64 @ 07:27 BST Jun 25 
• SUP 1: 167.46 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 2: 166.12 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 164.95 Low Jun 13   
• SUP 4: 164.40 50-day EMA   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to this week’s session, reinforces a bullish theme. The cross has recently cleared 166.69, the Oct 31 ‘24 high. Scope is seen for a climb towards 170.47, a key Fibonacci retracement point. Note that the cross is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 166.12, the 20-day EMA.

• Not much Change in Bund post cash open, there's a small bid on the Cash Open, but the contract is well within the Resistance and support.
• These stands at 131.28 (resistance) and 131.05 (the 2.60% Yield level).
• On the Margin the US Tnotes is in Focus, as the 10yr Yield keeps testing the 4.30% level, printed a 4.2886% low for now.
• For outright futures, the next outright resistance is at 111.25, and in terms of Yield, 111.28+ would equate to 4.25%.
• There's no Tier 1 data for the session, the Spanish GDP is final reading, and on the other side of the Pond, US NHS (New Home Sales) is unlikely to move the needle.
• SUPPLY: Italy €3bn 2027 (equates to 26.3k short 2yr BTP) could somewhat weigh, the 2031 linker won't impact BTP. UK £3.25bn 2040 (equates to 35.8k Gilt) will weigh, US Sells $70bn of 5yr Notes and $28bn of 2yr FRN reopening, the FRN won't impact Treasuries.
• SPEAKERS: BoE Lombardelli, US Goolsbee, Powell.