FED: Fed's Cook Vows To Stay On As Fed Governor
Federal Reserve Governor Cook has issued a statement stating she has no intention of resigning, the full statement is outlined below, via BBG. This follows overnight calls from US President Trump for her to resign. This came after: "Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte recently urged Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Cook over a pair of mortgages." (via BBG).
- “I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said in a statement. “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Core Rally
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.630 @ 16:49 BST Jul 21
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures traded strong to start the week, buoyed by a global rally in core bonds. This again challenges resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Instead, a continuation lower would strengthen a bearish theme. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Tuesday
| 2345BST | 0645HKT | 0845AEST | New Zealand June Trade |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | RBA Minutes Of June Meeting |
| 0335BST | 1035HKT | 1235AEST | New Zealand Bill Sale |
STIR: Fed Cut Pricing Steady, Bucking Moves Further Down Yield Curve
Futures-implied Fed funds rates were little changed Monday. Despite a decent move further down the curve (10Y yields -4bp), the short-end remained relatively anchored as the prevailing narrative remained of the FOMC maintaining its projected course of roughly 2 rate cuts by year-end (Dec pricing = 46bp, unch from Friday). There's about 100bp of cuts still priced through the next year.
- There's still understandably almost no chance of a July rate cut (under 4% priced) with the biggest drama probably being whether there are zero, one, or two dissents to a hold; the first cut i still not seen coming until October (28bp, unch).
- Last week's drama over whether President Trump would fire Fed Chair Powell in the near future appears to have abated - the White House reiterated today that Powell wouldn't be fired, and as MNI's Policy Team reported, "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would likely prevail in court and get to serve out his term even if President Donald Trump goes through with threats of firing him, former Fed lawyer Cornelius Hurley told MNI." (MNI INTERVIEW: Powell Would Win In Court If Trump Fires Him).
- We get Fed speakers Tuesday (Powell and Bowman) but they are not permitted to deliver monetary policy comment, rather appearing as part of a conference on banking regulation.
| Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Last Week's Close (Jul 18) | Chg Since Then (bp) |
| Jul 30 2025 | 4.32 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 4.32 | 0.5 |
| Sep 17 2025 | 4.17 | -15.6 | -14.9 | 4.17 | 0.5 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 4.05 | -28.2 | -12.6 | 4.04 | 0.5 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 3.87 | -45.8 | -17.6 | 3.87 | -0.1 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 3.76 | -56.7 | -10.9 | 3.77 | -0.5 |
| Mar 18 2026 | 3.62 | -71.5 | -14.8 | 3.62 | -0.9 |
| Apr 29 2026 | 3.52 | -80.7 | -9.2 | 3.54 | -1.5 |
| Jun 17 2026 | 3.38 | -95.1 | -14.4 | 3.40 | -2.2 |
