AUSTRALIA: Federal Election Preview
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The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) is on course win a second term in office in the 3 May federal election. Just months ago, it appeared likely that the conservative Liberal/National coalition were set to return to power after just one term on the opposition benches. However, public sentiment appears to have shifted notably over the course of the campaign.
In this election preview we will provide a short briefing on how the election works and who the main parties are, a chartpack of opinion polling and betting market data ahead of the vote, a scenario analysis examining the probabilities and implications of various outcomes, and some sell-side views on the contest.
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GREECE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 13-Week GTB
| Type | 13-week GTB |
| Maturity | Jul 4, 2025 |
| Amount | E500mln |
| Target | E500mln |
| Previous | E500mln |
| Avg yield | 2.03% |
| Previous | 2.37% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.91x |
| Previous | 2.45x |
| Previous date | Jan 29, 2025 |
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 1.125% Sep-35 Linker
Corrects for pre-auction midprice.
| 1.125% Sep-35 Linker | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP1.60bln | GBP1.60bln |
| Avg yield | 1.268% | 1.115% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.36x | 3.52x |
| Tail | N/A | N/A |
| Avg price | 98.600 | 100.100 |
| Pre-auction mid | 98.511 | 100.045 |
| Previous date | 25-Feb-25 |
GREECE: PM Unveils Multi-Billion Euro 12-Yr Defence Programme
Speaking as part of a parliamentary briefing and debate on defence and armaments, PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis saying that his gov't is planning to spend E25bln as part of a new 12-year defence plan running to 2037. Mitsotakis claims that "There can be no progress without security," and that the moves announced today represent the most "dramatic restructuring of the Armed Forces in modern history."
- Mitsotakis says that domestic procurement will be at the heart of these developments and that significant Greek involvement in production should become the norm. Defence Minister Nikos Dendias has issued a directive calling for Greek participation in at least 25% of future defence projects. Given the nature of EU regulations on tendering processes, it remains to be seen how cast-iron this commitment will be.
- Referring to the ReArm Europe defence spending package and the 'escape clause' from the excessive deficit procedure, PM says "the EU as a whole is called upon to redefine its position". Mitsotakis: "This fiscal flexibility should not and will not become a reason for excesses."
- ReArm Europe received the backing of Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy and the main opposition centre-left PASOK. The two hold a combined 188 seats in the 300-member parliament, ensuring more than enough support. The parties of the far-left (Syriza, Communist Party, Course of Freedom), holding a combined 53 seats voted against, while the far-right (NIKI, Greek Solution) abstained.
- Greece is already one of the highest NATO spenders as a % of GDP, coming in at 3.08% in 2024.
