BRAZIL: Federal Debt Rises 0.2% M/m In March

RRP usage surges to highest level since December 31, 2024: just under $400B to $399.167B this afternoon from $286.575B Friday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties at jumps to 66 from 45.

• RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024  
• RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
• RES 1: 1.3015 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.2940 @ 14:35 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.2884/71 20-day EMA / Low Mar 27      
• SUP 2: 1.2753 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
• SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4   
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28      

The trend in GBPUSD is bullish and the pair continues to trade above last week’s lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2884, is intact. A continuation higher and a breach of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. A clear breach of the 20-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper correction.                  

The new survey from AP-NORC has found that the US public is, “less likely to see Canada as a close ally of the United States than it was in September 2023, but most still see the relationship as at least friendly.” 

• AP notes: “The change in whether Canada is perceived as a close ally primarily comes from Democrats, but Republicans are also less likely to see Canada as the country’s ally now. Fifty-one percent of Democrats see Canada as a close ally, down from 73% in 2023. Among Republicans, 44% say Canada is a close ally, down from 55% in 2023.”
• The report adds: “Perceptions of the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico have shifted a bit since 2023, but most continue to characterize the relationship as friendly.”

Figure 1: How Would you View the Relationship Between the US and the Following Countries? 

Source: AP-NORC