STIR: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Headlines Docket
May-14 10:34
- Fed Funds implied rates are 0-1bp lower for 2025 meetings, close to hawkish extremes.
- The 54bp of cuts priced for 2025 is off yesterday’s 52bps but those were levels last seen in February.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2.5bp Jun, 11bp Jul, 26bp Sep, 38.5bp Oct and 54.5bp Dec.
- Today’s lighter docket should have tomorrow in mind with PPI/retail sales reports for April and Fed Chair Powell speaking 10 minutes after, albeit on the framework review.
- We touched on Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) just below, on him solid underlying strength but with him watching for more timely signs of consumers and businesses pulling back.
- Still to come, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) speaks on the economic outlook at 0910ET (text only) before SF Fed’s Daly (non-voter) in a fireside chat late on at 1740ET (Q&A only).
- A senior figure on the FOMC who doesn’t speak particularly often, Jefferson will be watched closely for any reaction to the US-China trade de-escalation seen since the weekend. He said Apr 3: "In my view, there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments. The current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate… If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, the current policy restraint could be retained for longer. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, policy could be eased accordingly."
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Apr-14 10:33
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3063.4, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a 1.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and last Wednesday's rally is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations, Fed Speak
Apr-14 10:31
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 14-Apr 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.13%, --)
- 14-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
- 14-Apr 1300 Fed Gov Waller economic outlook (text, Q&A)
- 14-Apr 1800 Philly Fed Harker on role of Fed (tex, Q&A)
- 14-Apr 1940 Atlanta Fed Bostic fireside chat on policy
US INFLATION: MNI US Inflation Insight: No Tariff Surge Realization In March
Apr-14 10:15
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Inflation Insight.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis and a range of analyst core PCE estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Apr2025_6247605af4.pdf
