STIR: Fed Terminal Rate Expectations At Fresh Recent Lows Ahead Of Payrolls
Sep-05 10:33
* Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for Sept and Oct meeting but have lifted 1.5bps ...
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: 10Y Note Sale, Fed Speak
Aug-06 10:33
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/06 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.8%, --)
- 08/06 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction
- 08/06 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CNT4)
- 08/06 1400 Fed Gov Cook & Boston Fed Collins panel event (no text, Q&A)
- 08/06 1610 SF Fed Daly moderated discussion eco-summit
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
CHF: BofA Think Markets Complacent, Weaker Franc If Tariff Levels Remain
Aug-06 10:19
Following the US's announcement of 39% tariffs on Swiss imports, Bank of America think "the options available to the Swiss appear limited and it is unclear whether these will appease the U.S." as opposed to a complacent-appearing market which believes "that a deal will be struck in line with precedent of other negotiations".
- This leads them to conclude that if announced tariff levels would in fact remain in play, they "doubt that [an SNB] move into negative territory is the solution [...]. The more impactful policy lever would be to absorb the tariff rate via a weaker currency. This has been a path trodden by other economies in the past notably China."
- "SNB itself has history of attempting to weaken the currency via the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor. The net result in our view is that 39% tariff which cannot be negotiated downwards would lead to a structurally weaker currency, in large part driven by SNB action."
EUR: Volume Spike Tips EUR/USD Through Post-NFP High
Aug-06 10:16
EUR edges to the best levels of the day into the NY crossover, with a sizeable upturn in EUR futures volumes at 1107BST/0607ET the likely driver. No notable newsflow or headlines crossing to trigger the move, and cross-market prices also relatively subdued.
- Just shy of $200mln notional traded on the initial EUR rally - helping push EUR/USD spot now through the 1.1600 handle for a new weekly high. Break of resistance into the post-NFP high at 1.1597 also helping here - and spot now within range of a sizeable option expiry (€1.1bln) rolling off at 1.1600 today.
- This tips EUR/JPY to new daily highs - but progress above 171.85 is needed before the late July highs can come into play.
