US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is shortly due to deliver a press conference from the White House.

• Livestream: https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
• As has been the case throughout the week, the debt ceiling and the controversy surrounding President Biden's mishandling of government documents are expected to be the focus of questions.
• The US Treasury Department will tomorrow begin using “extraordinary measures” to continuing paying the government’s financial obligations as Democrats and Republicans squabble over raising the federal debt limit.
• Read more in today's US Daily Brief: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/50712/MNI%20...

• RES 4: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 142.04 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 141.69 Intraday high
• PRICE: 139.01 @ 16:51 GMT Jan 18
• SUP 1: 138.01 High Jan 13
• SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25

A strong rally in EURJPY has resulted in a retracement of the recent Jan 11 -13 bear leg, however largely faded ahead of the close. The cross has traded above the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 142.04. A clear break of this average is required to strengthen a bullish condition and this would highlight a potential reversal. Clearance of resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high, would also represent a positive development. The key support and bear trigger is 137.39, Jan 3 low.

Former President Donald Trump has regained ground in the 2024 presidential race, in the eyes of bookmakers.

• Trump's star slumped in the aftermath of a poor performance at the US Midterm Elections and an underwhelming campaign launch to such an extent that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) took clear favourite status..
• According to Smarkets, DeSantis remains the favourite to win in 2024 with an implied probability of 26%. President Biden is second favourite with an implied probability of 22%. Trump, however has closed the gap both with an implied probability of 14%.
• Analyst will be watching over the coming weeks to determine what influence the ongoing controversy over Biden's improperly stored government documents will have on the 2024 race.
• The prominence of the story may undermine the Democrat political case against Trump and the Department of Justice's legal case against Trump.
• There is also the possiblity that the story may serve to highlight perceived negative qualities of both Trump and Biden and add impetus to a DeSantis campaign.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner (Smarkets)