STIR: Fed Rates Soften But Keep Dec A Close Call, Labor Data In Spotlight
Nov-18 11:44
- Fed Funds implied rates have softened 0.5-3bp overnight for meetings out to mid-2026, although a December pause is still seen a marginally more likely than another cut.
- There has been some reference to a Bloomberg piece from late yesterday on higher WARN notices in a Cleveland Fed tally for October, but we note that this somewhat chimes with the Challenger report from two weeks ago which showed its highest layoff announcements for an October since 2003.
- Cumulative cuts from 3.87% effective: 11bp Dec, 22bp Jan, 32.5bp Mar, 39.5bp Apr, 55.5bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are up 3.5 ticks firmer in 2026 and 2027 contracts, with the terminal yield of 3.075% (H7) at the lower end of the 3.065-3.16% range for closes seen in recent weeks.
- The weekly ADP report will be watched closely.
- Today’s Fedspeak highlights likely come from Richmond Fed’s Barkin on the economic outlook at 1100ET (text + Q&A). However, the fact he doesn’t hold a voting role in 2025 or 2026 should limit the market reaction considering heightened attention on near-term rate cut prospects.
- He hasn’t materially touched on the outlook since September. We suspect he was one of the six dots back at the September SEP looking for no further rate cuts in the year (i.e. would have preferred not to cut last month) but we have lower conviction there than for some others.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
