STIR: Fed Rates A Little Off Yesterday’s Most Dovish Levels
May-30 10:39
- Fed Funds implied rates hold much of yesterday’s dovish shift, seen on a rolling over in equity futures plus a collection of dovish US data, ahead of the April PCE report and finalized U.Mich survey plus further Trump comments.
- The path is slightly off yesterday’s most dovish levels though, with a federal appeals court temporarily reinstating tariffs and the Trump administration looking at alternative strategies.
- Most dovish levels had been seen after White House Press Sec Leavitt said President Trump told Fed Chair Powell he believes the Fed is making a “mistake” by not lowering rates in a Trump-requested meeting. “The president's been very vocal about that, both publicly and now I can reveal privately as well."
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 6.5bp Jul, 20.5bp Sep, 33bp Oct and 49.5bp Dec.
- Essentially no change in terminal pricing, with a SOFR implied yields expected to bottom at 3.255% (SFRZ6, -0.5bp). That sits a little below the 100bp +/-5bp of cuts range mostly held in the past two plus weeks.
- SF Fed's Daly (non-voter) speaks late on at 1645ET in a panel (Q&A only). She said yesterday that she's seeing the balance in the labor market that we need for 2% inflation. The economy is in a good place and she sees a general sense of cautious optimism.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In WTI Remains Present
Apr-30 10:38
- On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and the yellow metal continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3239.5, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme, signalling the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. A clear resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, the 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial support to watch is at $58.29, the Apr 29 low. Resistance to watch is $65.38, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE, Home Sales
Apr-30 10:35
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 30-Apr 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-12.7%, --)
- 30-Apr 0815 ADP Employment Change (155k, 115k)
- 30-Apr 0830 US Tsy quarterly refunding annc
- 30-Apr 0830 GDP Price Index (2.3%, 3.1%)
- 30-Apr 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (2.4%, -0.2%)
- 30-Apr 0830 Personal Consumption (4.0%, 1.2%)
- 30-Apr 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2.6%, 3.1%)
- 30-Apr 0830 Employment Cost Index (0.9%, 0.9%)
- 30-Apr 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (47.6, 45.9)
- 30-Apr 1000 Personal Income (0.8%, 0.4%); Spending (0.4%, 0.6%)
- 30-Apr 1000 PCE Price Index MoM (0.3%, 0.0%), YoY (2.5%, 2.2%)
- 30-Apr 1000 Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.1%), YoY (2.8%, 2.6%)
- 30-Apr 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (2.0%, 1.0%), YoY (-7.2%, -5.7%)
- 30-Apr 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resistance Remains Intact
Apr-30 10:30
- In FX, the recent pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1251. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Support to watch lies at 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.
- The bounce in USDJPY that started Apr 22 is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.06, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 146.87. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing.
