STIR: Fed Rate Path Slides On Risk-Off, 100bp Of Cuts Seen With June FOMC
Oct-16 17:37
- Fed Funds implied rates had pared broad risk-off moves but still hold a sizeable slide on the day (Dec 25 rate 4.5bp lower on the day, Jun 26 rate 7bp lower).
- It dominates any possible hawkish reaction to Waller’s potentially cautious approach beyond the October meeting.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.10% effective: 25bp Oct, 51.5bp Dec, 66bp Jan, 79.5bp Mar, 87.5bp Apr and 102bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are up to 8 ticks higher on the day through U6-H7 contracts, i.e. with largest moves in the perceived terminal yield.
- At 2.895% (SFRH7), it’s easily pushed through narrow ranges seen this week (it closed between 2.95-2.975% Mon-Wed) and would be its lowest close since Sep 16 (pre FOMC announcement on Sep 17 when Powell’s press conference on a lack of clarity around future rate cuts drove a hawkish reaction).
- Still to come today, state-level jobless claims data should be released at some point this afternoon.
- Miran appears in a moderated conversation at 1615ET but has already spoken today. The town hall nature of Kashkari’s (’26 voter) appearance at 1800ET likely limits the extent of monetary policy comments.
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BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: UK Curve Belly Underperforms Pre-CPI
Sep-16 17:33
EGBs and Gilts traded mixed Tuesday amid key UK data releases and ahead of the Fed and BoE decisions.
- Yields picked up in morning European trade, with Gilts weighed down in particular by firmer-than-anticipated aspects of the latest UK labour market report.
- Yields would peak in early afternoon after US retail sales data printed much stronger than expected, but would subsequently subside over the rest of the European cash session, as a pullback in equities renewed a bid for core FI.
- DMO announced a reduction in the size of 30Y Gilt auctions, helping the UK curve flatten toward the end of the session.
- Elsewhere in data, Euro area industrial production increased in July in line with expectations, while the September German ZEW survey's expectations component was much stronger-than-expected.
- The German curve twist steepened, with the UK's twist flattening with underperformance in the belly. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads were little changed on the day.
- Wednesday's European calendar highlight is the UK CPI release (MNI preview here) though there will be global interest in the Federal Reserve meeting after the close as well as multiple ECB speakers (including Lagarde), with the BoE decision looming Thursday.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.6bps at 2.002%, 5-Yr is down 1.1bps at 2.285%, 10-Yr is up 0.2bps at 2.693%, and 30-Yr is up 1.5bps at 3.275%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.1bps at 3.964%, 5-Yr is up 1.8bps at 4.079%, 10-Yr is up 0.6bps at 4.639%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 5.453%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.1bps at 78.5bps / French OAT spread up 0.5bps at 79.6bps
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: ON RRP Takeup Ticks Up From Multi-Year Low
Sep-16 17:27
Overnight reverse repo facility takeup ticked up for the first session in the last four, but remained near post-2021 lows.
- A $1.9B rise Tuesday from Monday's post-April 2021 low brought takeup to $18.8B.
- That left takeup still flatlining vs the habitual $100B+ levels seen prior to August, and is likely to remain around low levels until month-end when the usual month-/quarter-end pressures tend to increase takeup.
US: Americans' View On Trump Tariffs Coloured By Partisan Affiliation
Sep-16 17:21
A new survey from I&I/TIPP shows a stark partisan divide on the benefit or harm of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. TIPP notes, “Overall, 23% said tariffs mostly help U.S. workers, but more than twice as many – 55% – said they mostly hurt consumers. Another 11% said it doesn't make a lot of difference, while 11% were not sure.
- “Democrats (11% "mostly helps workers," 76% "mostly hurts consumers") and independents (14% "mostly helps workers," 58% "mostly hurts consumers") overwhelmingly agreed that consumers were hurt by tariffs.
- “But among Republicans, 41% answered that the tariffs would help workers, compared to just 35% who said they would help consumers.”
Figure 1: Do Tariffs Mostly Help American Workers, Hurt American Consumers, or not make much Difference?
Source: Tipp Insights
