STIR: Fed Pricing Little Changed Over Jobless & ULC Data

Sep-04 12:53

Little net change in Fed pricing over the weekly jobless claims and final Q2 ULC data, 24bp of cuts priced for this month, 38bp through October and 59bp through year-end, little changed to ~0.5bp more dovish vs. pre-data levels.

  • With the downtick in final Q2 ULC data and slightly higher-than-expected initial jobless claims data probably impacting Dec pricing at the margin (note that ULC moderated as the final Q2 productivity print rose).

Historical bullets

MNI: CANADIAN JUN TRADE BALANCE CAD -5.9 BILLION

Aug-05 12:30
  • MNI: CANADIAN JUN TRADE BALANCE CAD -5.9 BILLION
  • CANADA JUN EXPORTS CAD 61.7 BLN, IMPORTS CAD 67.6 BLN
  • CANADA REVISED MAY MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE CAD -5.5 BLN

MNI: US JUN TRADE GAP -$60.2B

Aug-05 12:30
  • MNI: US JUN TRADE GAP -$60.2B

MNI: US JUN TRADE GAP -$60.2B VS MAY -$71.7B

Aug-05 12:30
  • MNI: US JUN TRADE GAP -$60.2B VS MAY -$71.7B