STIR: Fed Pricing Fades From Knee-Jerk Dovish Extremes After Soft CPI
Dec-18 13:48
Immediate dovish reaction to the softer-than-expected CPI data fades, with markets seemingly taking the downside surprise vs. expectations with a fair degree of scepticism given the size of the departures vs. expectations and lack of detail within the data. Data collection quirks also noted.
- Fed Funds futures show 6.5bp of easing for January, 16.5bp through March, 23.5bp through April and 37bp through June, little changed vs. pre-data levels.
- SOFR futures now 0.75-5.0 higher on the day vs. 0.5-3.5 firmer ahead of the release.
- Contracts 0.25-3.0 off post-data highs.
- Implied terminal rate pricing 3.045% vs. 3.07% heading into the reading.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Dec'25 SOFR Call Fly, Call Condor Block Add
Nov-18 13:46
- +30,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50 call flys, 3.25
- Recent block, -5,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors, 1.5 ref 96.19 - adds to appr 7,500 on screen overnight
US DATA: Weekly ADP Sees Another Decline Heading Into November
Nov-18 13:42
- The ADP NER Pulse reports -2.5k private sector jobs lost over the four weeks to Nov 1 on a week-on-week basis.
- It follows a downward revised -14.25k (-11.25k) in the previous week to Oct 25 and 4.75k (6.25k previously) in the week to Oct 18.
- Whilst not as weak as last week’s surprisingly soft estimate, it still points to a resumption of a rolling over in jobs growth after the 42k increase in the official monthly report for October had fared a little better than expected after a sizeable decline in September.
- Note the chart below shows on a crude monthly basis to show how it's changed vs the last published monthly figures.
- Once again, ADP warns that “These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added."
- Note also that ADP first published this figure at another new link today: https://www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-is-sluggish-but-new-hires-are-on-the-upswing-how/
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Sale Post-Data
Nov-18 13:39
- -5,000 TUZ5 104-05.75, post time bid at 0827:49ET, DV01 $186,350.
- The 2Y contract has since traded up to 104-06.12 (+3.12).
