US TSYS: Fed Chair Powell: Shifting Risks May Warrant Policy Adjustment
Aug-22 19:31
- Treasuries look to finish near session highs - after gapping higher following Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech from the Jackson Hole, Wy symposium. Sep'25 10Y contract trades +19 at 112-04.5 after the bell vs. 112-08 high, 10Y yield -.0739 at 4.2537% vs. 4.2402% low.
- Technical resistance attention on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
- The major near-term policy signal takeaway from Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole keynote (link) is that he only acknowledges that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance", but also that the risks appear to have shifted since the July meeting ("The balance of risks appears to be shifting"), as "downside risks to employment are rising.
- Boston Fed President Collins: Sep cut not a done deal as "risks on the two sides have come into rough balance. So, that is a really complex context for monetary policy, when you could see the unemployment rate rising and you could see higher inflation. You know, my baseline is not one that is as concerned about inflation expectations rising at the moment. Earlier in the year I had more concerns about that.
- Focus in the coming week shifts to any further policy signaling from central bank officials at Jackson Hole. BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, BoJ's Ueda, Riksbank's Thedeen and several more FOMC members are in attendence - meaning it should be a busy weekend for central bank commentary.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
Jul-23 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6621 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 1- 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6601 High Jul 23
- PRICE: 0.6586 @ 16:13 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s appreciation has resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger. This resumes the uptrend and sights are on 0.6688, the Nov 7’ 24 high. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Low Delta Puts Lead Volume
Jul-23 19:09
Decent SOFR & Treasury option volumes reported Wednesday, mixed trade with low delta puts outpacing calls by the close. Underlying futures weaker but off lows. Projected rate cut pricing cools slightly vs. late Tuesday (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.2bp, Sep'25 at -16bp (-16.4bp), Oct'25 steady at -28.7bp, Dec'25 at -44.8bp (-45.6bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +20,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors 2.12-2.25
- +3,000 0QZ5 97.25/97.75/98.00 1x3x2 call flys 4.0 ref 96.825
- +14,000 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.25/96.37 put condors 5.75-6.0
- +5,000 SFRU5 95.87/96.12 call spds 1.25 over 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 95.835
- +5,000 SFRU5 95.87/96.00/96.12 call flys w/ 95.62/95.75 2x1 put spds, 5.5
- 2,000 SFRU5 95.62/96.00 strangles
- -2,000 2QQ5/2QU5 96.37 puts, 1.75 ref 96.77
- -5,000 0QU5 97.50/98.50 call spds vs. 2QU5 97.50/98.00 call spds, 0.75 flattener
- -5,000 0QU5/2QU5 97.50/98.50 call spds, 0.75
- -4,000 SFRQ5/SFRU5 96.00 call spds, 1.25 ref 95.835
- Block/screen, +44,265 SFRQ5 95.62 put, cab (reduced from 103k)
- Block/screen, +8,284 0QQ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 3.0
- 2,000 0QZ5 98.00 calls ref 96.865
- 2,000 SFRX5 96.31/96.50 call spds ref 96.11
- 7,200 SFRU5 95.62/95.68 2x1 put spds, 0.5 ref 95.835
- 10,000 0QQ 96.87 calls ref 96.785
- 3,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.37 call spds, 1.75 vs. 95.845/0.05%
- +2,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25 call spds, 1.5 vs. 95.845/0.05%
- Treasury Options:
- 4,300 TYU5 110.5/112 call spds, 46 ref 111-05.5
- over 17,400 FVU5 108.5 calls ref 108-14.5 to -14.75
- +2,000 TYQ5 111 straddles, 26
- +2,000 TYQ5 111/111.5 1x2 call spds, 10
- -1,500 TYU5 111/112.5 call spds, 34 vs. 111-05.5/0.32%
- -1,500 wk5 TY 111 puts, 20 vs. 111-02.5/0.43%
- -1,500 TYU5 109 puts, 7
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late Sep'25 5Y Sale
Jul-23 19:03
- -14,000 FVU5 108-10.75, sell through 108-11.25 post time bid at 1443:18ET, DV01 $600,000.
- The 5Y contract trades 108-10.25 last (-8) vs. 108-09.5 low.
