The New Zealand Feb BNZ-Business NZ PMI (manufacturing) edged down a touch to 55.0 (from a revised 55.1 in Jan, originally reported as 55.2). The chart below plots the PMI against NZ GDP y/y. The PMI is still pointing to better y/y GDP momentum in to early 2026. Note next Thursday we get Q4 GDP for NZ, with the market consensus at 0.5%q/q (1.1% was the Q3 rise), while the y/y is projected at 1.7% (versus 1.3% prior). BNZ via BBG notes: "Subcomponents provide further evidence that the manufacturing sector started 2026 well. The new orders and production indexes are meaningfully above their long run-averages: BNZ" but adds: “Recent economic data have taken a backseat relative to the conflict in Middle East. “It is too early for the PMI to capture any of these impacts”
Fig 1: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Versus GDP Y/Y

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The USD/JPY range overnight was 154.06 - 155.63, Asia is currently trading around 154.35. USD/JPY slipped lower again, slicing through most short-term supports as US Yields start to turn lower. The price action on Monday in response to the election outcome showed it was mostly priced in, and we have seen some “buy the rumour, sell the fact” play out. I thought we would see better demand back toward the 155.00 area initially but this move in US yields is causing the Yen shorts some angst. This price action does look messy but I still believe dips back toward the 149-152 will probably provide solid support again should we see it, until then it looks like we chop around albeit with a heavy tone as we await tonight's US labour data which will impact that move in US yields. On the day, the first resistance is back towards 155.05-155.35 and then 155.80-156.20 area as the market pares back its USD longs and looks for another base to form from which to move higher again.
Fig 1 : US 10-Year Yield Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
| 2345GMT | 0800HKT | 1000AEDT | South Korea Unemployment Rate SA JAN |
| 2345GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | South Korea Exports 10 Days YoY |
| 2345GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | South Korea Imports 10 Days YoY |
| 2345GMT | 1030HKT | 1230AEDT | China PPI YoY JAN |
| 0330GMT | 1030HKT | 1230AEDT | China CPI YoY JAN |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | South Korea Bank Lending to Households JAN |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI