CEE: Far-Right Parties Protest After Interrogation Of Romanian Elex Front-Runner

Feb-27 09:01

Far-right parties called street protests for this Saturday as presidential front-runner Calin Georgescu was detained and questioned by the police, before the prosecutors pressed charges and placed him under judicial control, but refrained from keeping him under arrest. The ability of the surprise winner of the first round of last year's cancelled election to contest the election re-run this year hands in the balance, amid reported pressure from the new US administration to allow him to run.

  • Georgescu was charged with incitement to actions against constitutional order, spreading false information, supporting fascist, racist, or xenophobic organisations, and a series of other crimes. The terms of his judicial control stipulate that he cannot leave Romania and, more importantly, is barred from using social media to disseminate prohibited content.
  • US Vice President JD Vance criticised Romanian courts in a speech delivered at the Munich Security Conference, alluding to the decision to annul last year's election, while Bloomberg reported that "US officials have privately urged Romanian counterparts not to bar Georgescu from running" in the repeat election.
  • The general perception has been that the governing coalition mishandled the crisis and a series of awkward decisions following Georgescu's surprisingly strong showing in the cancelled poll only bolstered his ratings. The process exposed the lack of preparation for such crises and forced establishment parties to implement improvised solutions.
  • Centre for Eastern Studies analyst Kamil Calus wrote that the turnout at Saturday's protests in defence of Georgescu will be a litmus test of public sentiment, which may be decisive for whether Georgescu will be allowed to run. The scale of pushback from the Trump administration may also play a role.
  • To our knowledge, Georgescu has been the front-runner in every opinion poll which included him on the list of candidates this year, with the presidential election re-run scheduled to take place on May 4. This is despite his highly controversial rhetoric, a series of criminal charges, and allegations of Russian interference in his favour.

Historical bullets

MNI: ECB Q4 ENTERPRISE CREDIT STANDARD +7

Jan-28 09:00
  • MNI: ECB Q4 ENTERPRISE CREDIT STANDARD +7
  • MNI: ECB Q4 ENTERPRISE DEMAND +3
  • MNI: ECB Q4 HOUSE PURCHASE STANDARDS +1
  • MNI: ECB Q4 HOUSE PURCHASE DEMAND +42
  • MNI: ECB Q4 CONSUMER CREDIT STANDARDS +6
  • MNI: ECB Q4 CONSUMER CREDIT DEMAND +2

BUNDS: /SWAPS: Schatz/Buxl ASW Spread Pinned Near Cycle Highs

Jan-28 08:48

{GE} BUNDS/SWAPS: Continued outperformance in the front end of ASW spreads has taken the Schatz/Buxl ASW curve to fresh cycle highs near 50bp (based on 3-month Euribor ASWs).

  • Increasing free float and fiscal/issuance risks have driven much of the move in the spread.
  • The same drivers should continue to limit any widening episodes in long end spreads, although positioning presents some upside risk to long end spreads (in the case that an upside catalyst becomes apparent).

Fig. 1: Schatz/Buxl ASW Spread (Vs. 3-Month Euribor)

SchatzBuxlASW280125

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

BONDS: The German Bund edges to session high

Jan-28 08:37
  • As previously mentioned, mostly a two way early price action in Govies, Bund is back at its very tight session high, there's been some buying interest in French OAT, and the shorter end Schatz and Bobl, but very limited impact in Rates (Euribor) since the moves are more risks driven (tariffs, Equities) as oppose to interest Rate.
  • The early volume still stands out in the US, but stays fairly subdued in Europe.