NORWAY: Fall In Registered Unemployment Rate Supports Yesterday's Stance
The first piece of data following yesterday’s Norges Bank decision supported the less dovish-than-expected rate path revisions. The registered unemployment rate for December fell back to 2.1%, below the 2.2% expected by consensus and Norges Bank.
- The number of unemployed persons, in seasonally adjusted terms, fell 1k to 63.835k – the lowest level since July.
- Meanwhile, vacancies per day fell a little to 1.887k (vs 1.967k in November), but remains above the 1.852k seen in October.
- At yesterday’s policy decision, Norges Bank noted that the rise in the registered unemployment rate to 2.2% was “slightly higher than projected and slightly above the level consistent with output at potential”.
- Norges Bank is sensitive to labour market developments. From the latest policy MPR: “the welfare costs of high unemployment are substantial. An important consideration for monetary policy is to prevent cyclical downturns from becoming deep and protracted.”
- The December MPR projects that “The number of registered unemployed is expected to increase a little over the next couple of years, but the unemployment rate will likely remain close to the current level.”
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EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 181.70 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 2: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 180.29 High Nov 18
- PRICE: 180.21 @ 07:37 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 178.14/176.30 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17
- SUP 3: 174.51 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
- SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart
A firm bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact. Recent strength has resulted in a break of the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and this maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing a bull theme. Sights are on 180.37, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 177.93, the 20-day EMA.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI discusses the BOJ's move to headline CPI as preferred measure
MNI discusses the BOJ's move to headline CPI as its preferred inflation measure. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
- RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12
- RES 1: 6779.00 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 6643.25 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 6594.00 Low Nov 18
- SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend
S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The breach of support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also breached support at the 50-day EMA. An extension would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6779.00, the 20-day EMA.
