SWEDEN: Fall In LFS Unemployment Rate Was For The Wrong Reasons

• Looking more at the breakdown air fares contributed -0.17ppt to headline CPI and package holidays -0.03ppt while restaurants and accommodation both added 0.06ppt each.
• The contributions to services are roughly double those.
• There were no real other hugely notable moves.
• So overall, not much in here again to alter expectations of where the peak in CPI will come (which is expected in the September print we will receive next month).

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $68.43 @ 07:04 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain above their recent lows. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.

• Relative to the BOE's forecasts headline is in line to the hundredth.
• Food is actually 9 hundredths lower (was 21 hundredths higher last month).
• Energy is in line with consensus but surprised the BOE 44 hundredths to the upside (due to petrol prices).
• This was offset by services being 8 hundredths lower than the BOE forecast at 4.72%Y/Y (vs 4.80%).