BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Still Intact For Now

Westpac recommended a tactical short in the DXY overnight.

• The entry point was 98.85 & they would add more at 99.35, with a stop set at 99.65.
• They stress that they have relatively low conviction in the trade, “against the backdrop of a large and growing list of stories to process - unsettled politics and associated fiscal risks in Japan and France, escalating tensions in the bilateral U.S.-China economic relationship over rare earths, tariffs and shipping fees, and not least the ongoing U.S. government shutdown”.
• However, they point to “encouraging pockets of stability” as the driver of the recommendation.
• They highlight “French sovereign spreads have narrowed in recent days, while Japanese opposition parties are coalescing in ways that appear to undercut Takaichi’s chances of becoming PM”.
• They also provide some cross-market reasoning, suggesting that “more decisively, the recent run-up in DXY has left it expensive vs. 2- & 10- yield spreads”. 

• RES 4: $54.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $53.546  - High Oct 14 
• RES 2: $52.821 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 14 high-low range
• RES 1: $52.520 - Intraday high     
• PRICE: $52.515 @ 08:10 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: $49.677/47.233 - Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $43.627 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17  
• SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, however, price action was volatile and silver is off its latest high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $47.233, the 20-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.4080 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.4033 @ 08:04 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: 1.3939/3870 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 2: 1.3802 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low 
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28 

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3870, 50-day EMA.