BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Still Intact For Now
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $63.85 @ 07:04 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A sell-off in Brent futures on Wednesday highlights a bearish development. An extension lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.
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USD: Westpac Recommend Tactical DXY Short
Westpac recommended a tactical short in the DXY overnight.
- The entry point was 98.85 & they would add more at 99.35, with a stop set at 99.65.
- They stress that they have relatively low conviction in the trade, “against the backdrop of a large and growing list of stories to process - unsettled politics and associated fiscal risks in Japan and France, escalating tensions in the bilateral U.S.-China economic relationship over rare earths, tariffs and shipping fees, and not least the ongoing U.S. government shutdown”.
- However, they point to “encouraging pockets of stability” as the driver of the recommendation.
- They highlight “French sovereign spreads have narrowed in recent days, while Japanese opposition parties are coalescing in ways that appear to undercut Takaichi’s chances of becoming PM”.
- They also provide some cross-market reasoning, suggesting that “more decisively, the recent run-up in DXY has left it expensive vs. 2- & 10- yield spreads”.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave Intact
- RES 4: $54.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $53.546 - High Oct 14
- RES 2: $52.821 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 14 high-low range
- RES 1: $52.520 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $52.515 @ 08:10 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: $49.677/47.233 - Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $43.627 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, however, price action was volatile and silver is off its latest high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $47.233, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4033 @ 08:04 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 1.3939/3870 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3802 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3870, 50-day EMA.
