BRENT TECHS: (F6) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $92.83 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
The move down on Nov 12 in Brent futures and the subsequent sell-off, highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Note, it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle is in play. A move above resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.
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UK FISCAL: Headlines from the weekend: Fuel duty, former PM, food prices (2/2)
- The Sun on Sunday also runs that the 5p/litre "temporary" cut to fuel duty is expected to be scrapped. This would of course raise revenue (around GBP900mln per year). But would not help with Reeves' pledge to help cut the cost of living.
- Former PM Rishi Sunak wrote an op ed in Sunday Times. He urges Chancellor Rachel Reeves to increase headroom at the Budget. One of the more interesting points he notes is that he notes that Reeves would probably not be discussing increasing the headroom if she wasn't given opening numbers from the OBR that had been better than those at the more pessimistic end of the range. Most of the rest of the interview was broadly in line with what you would expect from a former leader of the opposition.
- There are also continued reports that supermarkets are lobbying against any increases in business rates - noting that margins for supermarkets are incredibly thin. And that any increase in taxes would lead to further increases in food prices.
- A number of media reports point to reductions in the cash ISA limit to GBP10k from GBP20k (this has been speculated on for a long time now so isn't huge news).
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $4186.4/4381.5 - Low Oct 17 / High Oct 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $4071.8 @ 07:14 BST Oct 27
- SUP 1: $4004.3 - Low Oct 22
- SUP 2: $3944.9 - Low Oct 9
- SUP 3: $3832.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
A sharp pullback in Gold last week appears corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $4052.6, has been pierced. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at $3832.4. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Rally Extends
- RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30
- RES 1: $66.78 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $66.21 @ 06:59 BST Oct 27
- SUP 1: $63.86/60.07 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Brent futures traded higher last week, resulting in a breach of resistance around the 50-day EMA, at $65.15. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note that resistance at $66.58, the Oct 9 high, has been pierced. A clear breach of this level would expose key resistance at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.07, the Oct 20 low.
