TTF NATGAS TECHS: (F6) Bear Leg Extension
Dec-04 13:46
- RES 4: €37.26 - High Jun 24 High Jul 31
- RES 3: €35.15 - High Aug 25
- RES 2: €33.98 - High Oct 7
- RES 1: €30.02/31.38 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: €27.46 @ 13:34 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: €27.25 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: €26.10 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - 30 - Jul 14 price swing
- SUP 3: €25.00 - Round number support
- SUP 4: €22.79 - 1.764 proj of the Jun 23 - 30 - Jul 14 price swing
The trend needle in TTF Gas futures continues to point south and another fresh cycle low today reinforces bearish conditions. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The psychological €30.00 handle has been cleared and the move down signals potential for an extension towards €26.10 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at €31.38, the 50-day EMA.
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AUD: More AUD Calls on the CME
Nov-04 13:44
More AUD Call sellers on the CME (multiple clips):
- AUDUSD (5th Dec) 66.50c, sold at 0.11 in 2.9k.
- AUDUSD (5th dec) 67.00c, sold at 0.06 and now 0.05 in 2.5k total
US TSY OPTIONS: Dec'25 2Y Broken Put Condor
Nov-04 13:40
- 10,000 TUZ5 103.87/104.37/104.5/104.87 broken put condors ref 104-05.5 to -05.62, 7.5 net
FOREX: Key AUDNZD Resistance in Focus Ahead of NZ Employment Data
Nov-04 13:37
- AUDNZD had two separate bouts of strength early Tuesday, with both rallies stalling just ahead of key medium-term resistance at 1.1491. We have highlighted that a break of this level would place the cross at its highest point since 2013, with plenty of attention on the level/1.1500 ahead of NZ employment data, which highlights the APAC calendar on Wednesday.
- Filled jobs for the quarter signal a stabilisation, but employment is likely to have remained weak, with consensus forecasting it to rise only 0.1% q/q to be still down 0.2% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to rise 0.1pp to 5.3%, in line with the RBNZ's August projections. Soft labour demand is likely to weigh on private wage growth, which is forecast to rise around 0.4% q/q after 0.6%.
- JP Morgan have emphasised that NZD positioning, for systematics in particular, still screens very short Kiwi, and that a tactical long into the data makes a lot of sense to them. This view is highlighted by the fact JPM’s economics team think the NZ economy is primed for a recovery as business surveys begin to show signs of stabilisation.
- With the RBA out of the way, and given the cross has been closely following 2y rate spreads over the past couple of weeks, AUDNZD shorts would be their pick.
- The initial target for a correction lower is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1373, before more meaningful support just below the 1.13 mark.
