EUROPEAN INFLATION: EZ Services Inflation Upwardly Revised in April Final Data
May-19 09:10
Rounded Eurozone HICP headline / core inflation was unrevised in the final April release. On an unrounded basis, headline came in at 2.17% (2.16% flash) after 2.18% in March. Core meanwhile was 2.75% (2.72% flash, 2.43% in March). In terms of contributions vs March, services adding 0.24pp was broadly outweighed by energy taking away 0.25p, while FAT and NEIG contributions were broadly unchanged.
- Services inflation was upwardly revised by 5 hundredths to 3.98% Y/Y (highest since August 2024), bringing the rounded rate to 4.0% - the highest since December 2024 (3.93% flash, 3.45% March). Despite the material April uptick (even the 3.93% flash reading was above all analyst estimates), general consensus is for services inflation to tick down again in the months to come.
- Recall that seasonally adjusted sequential services inflation accelerated in flash March data to 0.67%, the highest since the 0.91% seen in September 2022 and pushed 3m/3m services inflation momentum to an 8-month high of 4.08% (vs 3.31% prior) as it somewhat looks to repeat last year's pattern amidst both Easter Effects and residual seasonality concerns. We'll update latest trends here when the ECB updates its seasonal data later today.
- Other categories meanwhile looked mixed:
- Energy was downwardly revised to -3.56% (-3.47% flash, -0.98% March).
- Food, alcohol & tobacco (FAT) was little changed at 2.97% (3.00% flash, 2.93% March).
- Non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) came in at 0.57% (0.58% flash, 0.62% March).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Apr-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 29-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | EU | M3 / Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Confidence Indices |
| 29-Apr | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 30-Apr | 0630 | FR | GDP (p) / Consumer Spending |
| 30-Apr | 0700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 30-Apr | 0745 | FR | HICP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Apr | 0855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | DE | GDP (p) / State level CPI |
| 30-Apr | 0900 | IT | GDP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 30-Apr | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-Apr | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Holds Going Into W/E, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Caution
Apr-18 05:16
JGB futures are stronger, +18 compared to settlement levels, sitting near the middle of the range after a choppy session.
- “Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterates his stance that the central bank will carefully monitor if its economic outlook will be realized, accounting for the effects of US tariff measures, without preconception. The BoJ will raise the benchmark rate if the outlook is realized, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament.” (per BBG)
- “Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. plans to invest in Japan's super-long government bonds this fiscal year after their yields skyrocketed. The company aims to increase domestic government bond holdings by ¥30 billion, with gross purchases potentially reaching ¥300-400 billion.” (per BBG)
- Earlier today, Headline CPI for March showed +3.6% y/y versus +3.7% estimate. Core and Core-Core printed +3.2% y/y and +2.9% y/y, respectively, versus estimates of +3.2% and +2.9% and priors +3.0% and +2.6%.
- Cash US tsys are closed today for the Good Friday holiday.
- Cash JGBs have twist-steepened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps lower to 5bps higher.
- Swap rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data.
CHINA: Bond Futures Marginally Up Despite Liquidity Injection.
Apr-18 04:02
- China’s bond market reacted very little to a second day of sizeable liquidity injection.
- China’s 10YR bond future is up just +0.03 at 109.04 and remains firmly above all major moving averages. The nearest being the 20-day EMA at 108.61.
- The 2YR bond future is down -0.02 at 102.46; remaining below all major moving averages – the nearest being the 20 day EMA at 102.52.
- The 10YR CGB is marginally lower in yield at 1.64%
