EUROPEAN INFLATION: EZ Services HICP 3.93%, Firmer Than Highest Analyst Estimate
May-02 09:08
Eurozone April flash HICP Y/Y inflation came in at 2.16%, 6 hundredths above the rounded consensus of 2.1% (vs 2.18% March). On a monthly basis, Eurozone inflation came in at 0.56% (0.5% cons, 0.61% prior). The data in the release points towards a firm services rebound.
- Core HICP also printed above consensus, at 2.72% Y/Y and 0.99% M/M (2.5% cons; Mar 2.43% Y/Y, 0.97% M/M).
- Looking at the individual categories:
- Services inflation notably accelerated to 3.93% (3.45% Mar) - this means the category is back up to levels seen last in January, and the print was above the highest estimate we've seen ahead of the national level data (there has been a 3.4% - 3.8% range).
- Energy came in at -3.47% Y/Y, with the deceleration vs March's -0.98% underpinned by a sequential fall (M/M at -2.25%) - this looks below expectations, we saw consensus around -2.6% Y/Y.
- Non-energy industrial goods printed 0.58% Y/Y, the category has remained between 0.44% and 0.70% since last May and this is broadly in line with analyst consensus.
- Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation, as expected, accelerated slightly in April, to 3.00% Y/Y, above March's 2.93% but also line with expectations.
- Looking at the national-level prints, headline HICP inflation decelerated in 8 countries in April vs March despite the overall increase in headline.
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GREECE: PM Unveils Multi-Billion Euro 12-Yr Defence Programme
Apr-02 09:08
Speaking as part of a parliamentary briefing and debate on defence and armaments, PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis saying that his gov't is planning to spend E25bln as part of a new 12-year defence plan running to 2037. Mitsotakis claims that "There can be no progress without security," and that the moves announced today represent the most "dramatic restructuring of the Armed Forces in modern history."
- Mitsotakis says that domestic procurement will be at the heart of these developments and that significant Greek involvement in production should become the norm. Defence Minister Nikos Dendias has issued a directive calling for Greek participation in at least 25% of future defence projects. Given the nature of EU regulations on tendering processes, it remains to be seen how cast-iron this commitment will be.
- Referring to the ReArm Europe defence spending package and the 'escape clause' from the excessive deficit procedure, PM says "the EU as a whole is called upon to redefine its position". Mitsotakis: "This fiscal flexibility should not and will not become a reason for excesses."
- ReArm Europe received the backing of Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy and the main opposition centre-left PASOK. The two hold a combined 188 seats in the 300-member parliament, ensuring more than enough support. The parties of the far-left (Syriza, Communist Party, Course of Freedom), holding a combined 53 seats voted against, while the far-right (NIKI, Greek Solution) abstained.
- Greece is already one of the highest NATO spenders as a % of GDP, coming in at 3.08% in 2024.
EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 02/04/25
Apr-02 09:06
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/bloomberg:
- 1W 2.39400 0.4
- 1M 2.36000 1.1
- 3M 2.35600 3.2
- 6M 2.32000 1.1
- 12M 2.32600 4.9
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 1.125% Sep-35 linker
Apr-02 09:05
| 1.125% Sep-35 Linker | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP1.60bln | GBP1.60bln |
| Avg yield | 1.268% | 1.115% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.36x | 3.52x |
| Tail | N/A | N/A |
| Avg price | 98.600 | 100.100 |
| Pre-auction mid | 95.245 | 100.045 |
| Previous date | 25-Feb-25 |
