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Patrick English at YouGov posts on X regarding the pollster's pre-election multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll, "We are currently projecting that Mark Carney's Liberal Party will win a majority at the 2025 Canadian Federal Election, with 182 seats. We expect the Conservatives to win 133 seats. A hung parliament remains a distinct possibility."

• If the MRP poll were reflected in the upcoming 28 April election, it would represent a gain of 22 seats from the 2021 election for the Liberals, an outcome that just a few months ago would have been seen as all but impossible. One hundred and thirty-three seats for the Conservatives would represent a gain of 14 for Pierre Poilievre's centre-right party, but would nevertheless be felt as a huge missed opportunity given the 25% lead the party held in the polls at the start of 2025.
• In what looks like a clear realignment in support, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) would fall to just four seats from 25 in 2021. This would be the party's worst return since its foundation in 1961. US President Donald Trump's rhetoric and tariffs directed at Canada has bolstered the 'rally round the flag' effect, drawing some NDP voters towards the Liberals, while others have likely decided to side with PM Mark Carney's party in order to keep the Conservatives out. 

Chart 1. MRP Poll Constituency Map

Source: YouGov, Estimated constituency-level results based on the modelled responses of 6,077 adults in Canada. 

OI data points to a mix of net short setting (TU & FV), long cover (TY), long setting (UXY) and short cover (US & WN) as the curve twist flattened on Tuesday. The curve-wide net DV01 equivalent change on the day was very limited.