US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash

• Treasuries finishing near late session lows, curves continue to unwind Monday's sharp steepening with short end rates weaker vs. Bonds. Busy session for chasing tariff related headline risk.
• Treasuries opened higher as Pres Trump softened his stance on sacking Fed Chair Powell and reducing China tariffs, improved sentiment also lifting S&P eminis with ESM5 futures tapping 5499.75 high.
• Rates gapped higher briefly on a WSJ article that rehashed possible China tariff cuts, but support was short lived as markets assessed potential reductions, non-unilateral negotiations as well as comments from Tsy Sec Bessent's "in need of a rebalancing".
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent further stated that there is no unilateral offer from Trump to cut China tariffs, and that a full China trade deal could take two-to-three years.
• Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures currently -3.5 at 110-22 vs. session high of 111-18.5. Initial technical support at 110-15 (Apr 15 low) followed by 109-08 (bear trigger). Curves holding flatter profiles but off lows, 2s10s -5.713 at 52.252 (46.527 low), 5s30s -6.569 at 81.760 (77.371 low).
• Cross asset: Bbg US$ index near session high currently +6.84 a t 1228.46; stocks firmer but well off highs: SPX eminis +90.50 at 5405.25 (5499.75 high), Gold cratered: down over 103 at 3277.5 earlier trades 3295.5 at the moment, crude retreated as well (WTI -1.36 at 62.31).

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4165 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/4029 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3871 @ 16:29 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

A bearish theme in USDCAD remains intact for now despite Wednesday’s spot rally. Fresh cycle lows continue to highlight a resumption of the downtrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4029, the 20-day EMA.

$11.85B to Price Wednesday

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/23 $4B *Walmart $750M 2Y +22, $750M 2Y SOFR+43, $1B 5Y +37, $1.5B 10Y +52
• 04/23 $2.25B #QXO Inc. 7NC3 6.75%
• 04/23 $1.5B *OCP $750M 5Y +235, $750M +10Y +260
• 04/23 $1.25B *Rentokil Terminix $750M 5Y +115, $500M 10Y +135, 
• 04/23 $1B *Jane Street 8NC3 6.75%
• 04/23 $750M *Bank of Peru 10.25NC5 6.5%
• 04/23 $700M *Guardian Life 5Y +80
• 04/23 $400M *Hanwa Futureproof 3Y +95