US TSYS: Extraordinary Measures And Cash Look Sufficient To Head Off X-Date
Treasury has about $164B in "extraordinary measures" available as of April 23 to avoid hitting the debt limit, per its regular report out Friday. That's out of a maximum total of $375B (they have used $211B).
- With Treasury cash looking healthy (around $600B), that's a fair amount of dry powder to get through the summer months to wait out the debt limit impasse. Tax receipts have looked strong with tariff revenues also starting to boost cash flows, further reducing the near-term urgency to adjust bond issuance.
- This has also helped push back analyst “x-date” expectations to later in the summer/September. We expect to hear from Treasury about its own x-date assumptions next week.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Holds
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6307 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD has recovered from its latest low. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
CANADA DATA: Wholesale Sales Slowed In Feb Per Estimate, Echoing Manufacturing
StatCan published a preliminary estimate that wholesale sales ex petroleum, products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed & grain rose 0.4% M/M in February.
- While still a prelim estimate, and a pullback from 1.2% in January, this would still mean elevated growth in wholesale sales on a 3M/3M annualized basis (7.4%, after 8.1%,), and the highest Y/Y rate (using SA series as a comparison) in 10 months (3.1%).
- The reading "reflects higher sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector", per StatCan.
- Friday's GDP release brings expectations for a pickup in January growth to 0.3% M/M vs 0.2% prior - the chart below shows that after January's pickup in both wholesale and manufacturing sales, activity is seen to have weakened in February.
EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.48 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
- SUP 2: 160.43 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and a recent sell-off appears corrective. This has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.43, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
