REFINING: External Attack Not Ruled Out as Mol Refinery Fire Cause: Orban

• 2 RFGB auctions for E1.0-1.5bln each on 21 October and 18 November.
• 2 ORI auctions in Q4 (these were scheduled previously, minor date change) on 30 October and 26 November.
• 2 RFTB auctions for E1.0-2.0bln each on 14 October and 11 November.
• "Government’s latest supplementary budget proposal for 2025 increased the net borrowing requirement to EUR 14.298 billion, which implies gross borrowing of EUR 43.753 billion. Long-term funding operations for 2025 are well advanced with all of the euro-denominated supply in syndicated form completed." In the Q3 funding plan, net borrowing requirements stood at E13.233bln, while gross requirements were 42.688bln.
• "The next Quarterly Review will be published on 19 December 2025."
• Full release here.

The KOF indicator outperformed consensus in September, at 98.0 (97.0 cons, 96.2 prior, revised from 97.4). "The outlook for the Swiss economy continues to be subdued", KOF institute comments.

• On drivers: "Within the production-side indicator bundles included in the Barometer, the indicators for manufacturing and for financial and insurance services point to an improved outlook in particular. However, in the demand-side the indicators for foreign demand weaken while the prospects for private consumption remain unaltered."
• Two headlines crossing yesterday on Swiss - US relations suggest that negotiations on the 39% tariffs levied by the US on Swiss imports are continuing. The KOF indicator had suffered a setback in its August release following the US announcement of mentioned tariffs.

Plenty of activity in Options this Morning:

• ERM6 98.37c, bought for 3.25 in 12k.